Nations League Gameweek 1
Portugal
Sep 24, 2026 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estádio José Alvalade
Wales
  • João Félix 22' goal
  • yellowcard Craig Bellamy 68'
  • yellowcard Ben Cabango  71'

Portugal vs Wales - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

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Form, Standings, Stats

Portugal

All competitions

Wales

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 62.09%. A draw had a probability of 19.91% and a win for Wales had a probability of 18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.31%) and 2-1 (7.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.88%) , while for a Wales win it was 1-2 (4.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.

Result

Portugal 62.09%
Draw 19.91%
Wales 18%

Both Teams to Score: 

46.18%

Goals

Over 1.5 76.7%
Under 1.5 23.3%
Over 2.5 55.39%
Under 2.5 44.61%
Over 3.5 34.32%
Under 3.5 65.68%
Over 4.5 23.39%
Under 4.5 76.61%

First Half Winner

Portugal 45.28%
Draw 35.45%
Wales 19.27%

Team To Score First

Portugal 62.25%
No Goal 6.95%
Wales 30.8%

Corners

Over 8 61.78%
Equal 8 10.38%
Under 8 27.84%
Over 9 50.89%
Equal 9 10.89%
Under 9 38.22%
Over 10.5 40.34%
Under 10.5 59.66%

Portugal Goals

Over 1.5 56.9%
Under 1.5 43.1%
Over 2.5 32.06%
Under 2.5 67.94%
Over 3.5 15.27%
Under 3.5 84.73%

Wales Goals

Over 0.5 46.99%
Under 0.5 53.01%
Over 1.5 21.49%
Under 1.5 78.51%
Over 2.5 8.47%
Under 2.5 91.53%
Over 3.5 2.86%
Under 3.5 97.14%

Score analysis

Portugal 62.09%
Draw 19.92%
Wales 18%
Portugal
1-0 @ 12.08%
2-0 @ 11.31%
2-1 @ 7.86%
3-0 @ 7.63%
3-1 @ 5.48%
3-2 @ 2.68%
Other @ 15.05%
Total : 62.09%
Draw
1-1 @ 7.88%
0-0 @ 6.95%
2-2 @ 3.87%
3-3 @ 1%
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 19.92%
Wales
1-2 @ 4.35%
0-1 @ 4.28%
0-2 @ 2.12%
2-3 @ 1.8%
1-3 @ 1.58%
0-3 @ 1.23%
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 18%

Head to Head

European Championship
Portugal
Jul 6, 2016 8.00pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stade de Lyon
Wales
  • Cristiano Ronaldo 50' goal
  • Nani 53' goal
  • Bruno Alves 71' yellowcard
  • Cristiano Ronaldo 72' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Joe Allen 8'
  • yellowcard James Chester 62'
  • yellowcard Gareth Bale 88'

Form Data

Portugal 0 - 1 Spain
Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia
Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal
Portugal 5 - 0 Uzbekistan
Portugal 1 - 1 Congo DR
Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria
Romania 2 - 1 Wales
Wales 1 - 1 Ghana
Wales 1 - 1 N. Ireland
Wales 1 - 1 Bosnia H'vina
Wales 7 - 1 N. Macedonia
Wales 0 - 0 N. Macedonia

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