Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Romania win with a probability of 50.84%. A draw had a probability of 25.39% and a win for Wales had a probability of 23.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Romania win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.77%) , while for a Wales win it was 0-1 (7.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.