Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 44.45%. A win for Pogon Szczecin had a probability of 30.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 1-2 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.04%). The likeliest Pogon Szczecin win was 2-1 (7.7%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.