Nations League Gameweek 4
Oct 4, 2026 7.45pm
Estádio Do Dragão

Portugal vs Norway - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Portugal

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 24, 2026 7.45pm
Portugal 1 - 0 Wales

Norway

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 24, 2026 7.45pm
Norway 3 - 2 Denmark

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Portugal win with a probability of 55.9%. A win for Norway has a probability of 23.45% and a draw has a probability of 20.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.19%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Norway win is 1-2 (6.22%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.78%).

Result

Portugal 55.9% ▲ (+1.09)
Draw 20.65% ▲ (+0.27)
Norway 23.45% ▼ (-1.36)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.85% ▼ (-0.31)

Goals

Over 1.5 82.92% ▲ (+0.24)
Under 1.5 17.08% ▼ (-0.25)
Over 2.5 62.5% ▲ (+0.44)
Under 2.5 37.5% ▼ (-0.44)
Over 3.5 39.26% ▲ (+0.74)
Under 3.5 60.74% ▼ (-0.74)
Over 4.5 25.11% ▲ (+0.74)
Under 4.5 74.89% ▼ (-0.74)

First Half Winner

Portugal 43.24% ▲ (+0.15)
Draw 34.46% ▼ (-0.90)
Norway 22.29% ▲ (+0.74)

Team To Score First

Portugal 61.57% ▼ (-0.69)
No Goal 4.01% ▲ (+0.09)
Norway 34.42% ▲ (+0.61)

Corners

Over 8 53.89% ▼ (-1.93)
Equal 8 11.68% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 8 34.43% ▲ (+1.83)
Over 9 42.38% ▼ (-1.87)
Equal 9 11.5% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 9 46.11% ▲ (+1.93)
Over 10.5 31.97% ▼ (-1.65)
Under 10.5 68.03% ▲ (+1.65)

Portugal Goals

Over 1.5 57.01% ▲ (+1.54)
Under 1.5 42.99% ▼ (-1.54)
Over 2.5 31.83% ▲ (+1.26)
Under 2.5 68.17% ▼ (-1.27)
Over 3.5 14.1% ▲ (+1.33)
Under 3.5 85.9% ▼ (-1.32)

Norway Goals

Over 0.5 60.19% ▼ (-1.41)
Under 0.5 39.81% ▲ (+1.41)
Over 1.5 29.28% ▼ (-1.34)
Under 1.5 70.72% ▲ (+1.35)
Over 2.5 10.94% ▼ (-0.34)
Under 2.5 89.06% ▲ (+0.35)
Over 3.5 3.52% ▼ (-0.36)
Under 3.5 96.48% ▲ (+0.36)

Score analysis

Portugal 55.91%
Draw 20.66%
Norway 23.45%
Portugal
2-1 @ 9.8% ▲ (+0.14)
1-0 @ 8.19% ▼ (-0.18)
2-0 @ 7.66% ▲ (+0.04)
3-1 @ 6.43% ▼ (-0.05)
3-0 @ 6.05% ▲ (+0.21)
3-2 @ 3.86% ▼ (-0.32)
Other @ 13.92% ▲ (+1.26)
Total : 55.91%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.78% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 5.3% ▲ (+0.05)
0-0 @ 4.01% ▲ (+0.09)
3-3 @ 1.39% ▲ (+0.09)
Other @ 0.18% ▲ (+0.06)
Total : 20.66%
Norway
1-2 @ 6.22% ▼ (-0.50)
0-1 @ 4.9% ▼ (-0.14)
0-2 @ 2.96% ▼ (-0.23)
1-3 @ 2.43%
2-3 @ 2.42% ▲ (+0.07)
0-3 @ 1.18% ▼ (-0.15)
Other @ 3.34% ▼ (-0.42)
Total : 23.45%

Head to Head

Nations League Gameweek 2
Sep 27, 2026 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Ullevaal Stadion
  • Julian Ryerson 16' yellowcard
  • Fredrik Aursnes 47' yellowcard
  • Erling Haaland 51' goal
  • Kristoffer Ajer 65' yellowcard
  • goal João Félix 17'
  • yellowcard Jorge Jesus 20'
  • yellowcard João Palhinha 49'
  • goal Gonçalo Ramos 54'
  • yellowcard Renato Veiga 67'
  • yellowcard Vitinha 76'
  • yellowcard João Cancelo 76'
  • yellowcard Rúben Dias 87'
  • yellowcard Bernardo Silva 90'+3'
International Friendlies
May 29, 2016 8.45pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Ricardo Quaresma 13' goal
  • Raphael Guerreiro 65' goal
  • Eder 71' goal