Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 50.87%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for DC United had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.81%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a DC United win it was 0-1 (7.93%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.