Major League Soccer
Aug 1, 2026 12.30am
Yankee Stadium

New York City FC vs Toronto - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

New York City FC

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
Jul 26, 2026 12.30am
NY City 3 - 1 Chicago Fire
Goals scored
30
Top scorer
Nicolás Fernández Mercau

Toronto

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
Jul 26, 2026 12.30am
DC United 2 - 1 Toronto
Goals scored
23
Top scorer
Dániel Sallói

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a New York City FC win with a probability of 54.53%. A draw has a probability of 24.54% and a win for Toronto has a probability of 20.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (9.88%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.29%) , while for a Toronto win it is 0-1 (6.42%).

Result

New York City FC 54.53% (+0.08)
Draw 24.54% (+0.02)
Toronto 20.93% (-0.06)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.53% (-0.09)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.22% (-0.08)
Under 1.5 25.78% (+0.08)
Over 2.5 49.97% (-0.13)
Under 2.5 50.03% (+0.13)
Over 3.5 28.29% (-0.08)
Under 3.5 71.71% (+0.07)
Over 4.5 16.49% (-0.06)
Under 4.5 83.51% (+0.06)

First Half Winner

New York City FC 43.43% (-0.04)
Draw 38.14% (+0.04)
Toronto 18.43% (-0.02)

Team To Score First

New York City FC 59.75% (+0.07)
No Goal 7.4% (+0.04)
Toronto 32.85% (-0.09)

Corners

Over 8 64.43% (+0.24)
Equal 8 11.22% (-0.03)
Under 8 24.34% (-0.22)
Over 9 52.3% (+0.23)
Equal 9 12.13%
Under 9 35.57% (-0.23)
Over 10.5 40.4% (+0.22)
Under 10.5 59.6% (-0.22)

New York City FC Goals

Over 1.5 50.02% (-0.03)
Under 1.5 49.98% (+0.03)
Over 2.5 24.18% (-0.06)
Under 2.5 75.82% (+0.05)
Over 3.5 9.58% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 90.42% (+0.02)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5 55.7% (-0.09)
Under 0.5 44.3% (+0.09)
Over 1.5 22.98% (-0.10)
Under 1.5 77.02% (+0.10)
Over 2.5 7.18% (-0.08)
Under 2.5 92.82% (+0.07)
Over 3.5 1.84% (-0.03)
Under 3.5 98.16% (+0.02)

Score analysis

New York City FC 54.52%
Draw 24.54%
Toronto 20.94%
New York City FC
1-0 @ 11.96% (+0.06)
2-0 @ 9.88% (+0.06)
2-1 @ 9.63% (-0.01)
3-0 @ 5.62% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 5.38% (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.61%
Other @ 9.44% (-0.01)
Total : 54.52%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.29% (+0.02)
0-0 @ 7.4% (+0.04)
2-2 @ 4.72% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.14% (-0.01)
Total : 24.54%
Toronto
0-1 @ 6.42% (+0.01)
1-2 @ 5.38% (-0.04)
0-2 @ 3.09% (+0.01)
1-3 @ 1.7% (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.61% (-0.02)
0-3 @ 1.04% (-0.03)
Other @ 1.7% (-0.02)
Total : 20.94%

Head to Head

Major League Soccer
Jul 4, 2025 12.30am
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Major League Soccer
Apr 26, 2025 7.30pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT BMO Field
  • Deybi Flores 21' yellowcard
  • Kevin Long 31' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kevin O'Toole 22'
  • goal Alonso Martinez 64'
  • yellowcard Julian Fernandez 71'
  • yellowcard Tayvon Gray 90'+6'
Major League Soccer
May 12, 2024 12.30am
2
3
HT : 0 4
FT BMO Field
  • Federico Bernardeschi 22' yellowcard
  • Federico Bernardeschi 22' yellowcard
  • Sigurd Rosted 36' yellowcard
  • Sigurd Rosted 36' yellowcard
  • Kevin Long 53' yellowcard
  • Kevin Long 53' yellowcard
  • Federico Bernardeschi 55' goal
  • Federico Bernardeschi 55' goal
  • Raoul Petretta 89' goal
  • Raoul Petretta 89' goal
  • Federico Bernardeschi 90'+9' redcard
  • Federico Bernardeschi 90'+10' redcard
  • goal Santiago Rodriguez 23'
  • goal Santiago Rodriguez 23'
  • yellowcard Alonso Martinez 29'
  • yellowcard Alonso Martinez 29'
  • goal Malachi Jones 44'
  • goal Malachi Jones 44'
  • yellowcard Malachi Jones 50'
  • yellowcard Malachi Jones 50'
  • goal Andres Perea 78'
  • goal Andres Perea 78'
  • yellowcard Andres Perea 90'+9'
  • yellowcard Andres Perea 90'+9'
Major League Soccer
Mar 16, 2024 11.30pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT Yankee Stadium
  • Santiago Rodriguez 24' goal
  • Birk Risa 42' yellowcard
  • Keaton Parks 63' yellowcard
  • Kevin O'Toole 64' goal
  • Keaton Parks 68' redcard
  • Justin Haak 90'+3' yellowcard
  • James Sands 90'+5' yellowcard
  • goal Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty 7'
  • yellowcard Kevin Long 23'
  • yellowcard Federico Bernardeschi 28'
  • yellowcard Shane O'Neill 71'
  • yellowcard Lorenzo Insigne 90'+7'
  • yellowcard Kosi Thompson 90'+7'
Major League Soccer
Sep 24, 2023 6.00pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Yankee Stadium
  • Andres Perea 2' goal
  • Andres Jasson 45'+4' goal
  • Julian Fernandez 54' goal
  • Julian Fernandez 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Shane O'Neill 30'
Major League Soccer
Apr 30, 2023 12.30am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT BMO Field
  • CJ Sapong 46' goal