Major League Soccer
Aug 20, 2026 12.30am
TQL Stadium

FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

FC Cincinnati

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
Aug 16, 2026 12.30am
Orlando City 1 - 1 Cincinnati
Goals scored
46
Top scorer
Kévin Denkey

New York City FC

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
Aug 16, 2026 11.00pm
NY City 2 - 3 Philadelphia
Goals scored
33
Top scorer
Nicolás Fernández Mercau

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 50.69%. A win for New York City FC has a probability of 26.12% and a draw has a probability of 23.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (7.59%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest New York City FC win is 1-2 (6.66%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.23%).

Result

FC Cincinnati 50.69% (+0.04)
Draw 23.16% (-0.31)
New York City FC 26.12% (+0.27)

Both Teams to Score: 

62.29% (+0.07)

Goals

Over 1.5 83.02% (+0.12)
Under 1.5 16.98% (-0.13)
Over 2.5 62.63% (+0.22)
Under 2.5 37.37% (-0.22)
Over 3.5 40.75% (+0.22)
Under 3.5 59.25% (-0.22)
Over 4.5 25.39% (+0.31)
Under 4.5 74.61% (-0.30)

First Half Winner

FC Cincinnati 41.52% (+0.08)
Draw 37.04% (-0.32)
New York City FC 21.44% (+0.25)

Team To Score First

FC Cincinnati 58.64%
No Goal 4.3% (-0.09)
New York City FC 37.06% (+0.09)

Corners

Over 8 54.13% (+0.17)
Equal 8 10.63% (+0.11)
Under 8 35.24% (-0.26)
Over 9 43.58% (+0.05)
Equal 9 10.55% (+0.12)
Under 9 45.87% (-0.17)
Over 10.5 33.89% (-0.04)
Under 10.5 66.11% (+0.05)

FC Cincinnati Goals

Over 1.5 54.62% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 45.38% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 28.97% (+0.08)
Under 2.5 71.03% (-0.07)
Over 3.5 12.48% (+0.10)
Under 3.5 87.52% (-0.11)

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5 64.48% (+0.05)
Under 0.5 35.52% (-0.04)
Over 1.5 33.73% (+0.22)
Under 1.5 66.27% (-0.22)
Over 2.5 13.4% (+0.19)
Under 2.5 86.6% (-0.20)
Over 3.5 4.48% (+0.13)
Under 3.5 95.52% (-0.13)

Score analysis

FC Cincinnati 50.7%
Draw 23.17%
New York City FC 26.11%
FC Cincinnati
2-1 @ 9.35% (-0.02)
1-0 @ 7.59%
2-0 @ 6.98% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 6.1% (-0.03)
3-0 @ 4.49% (-0.05)
3-2 @ 4.05% (+0.05)
Other @ 12.14% (+0.13)
Total : 50.7%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.23% (-0.13)
2-2 @ 6.45% (-0.06)
0-0 @ 4.3% (-0.09)
3-3 @ 1.85% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.34% (-0.02)
Total : 23.17%
New York City FC
1-2 @ 6.66% (+0.04)
0-1 @ 5.07% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 3.17% (+0.03)
2-3 @ 2.87% (+0.04)
1-3 @ 2.82% (+0.03)
0-3 @ 1.38% (+0.02)
Other @ 4.14% (+0.14)
Total : 26.11%

Head to Head

Major League Soccer
Apr 23, 2026 12.30am
4
4
HT : 2 1
FT Yankee Stadium
  • Nicolás Fernández Mercau 20' goal
  • Nicolás Fernández Mercau 35' goal
  • Agustín Ojeda 53' goal
  • Talles Magno 72' yellowcard
  • Keaton Parks 72' yellowcard
  • Talles Magno 79' goal
  • Arnau Farnós 84' yellowcard
  • Jonathan Shore 84' yellowcard
  • Strahinja Tanasijević 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Alvas Powell 23'
  • goal Kévin Denkey 32'
  • yellowcard A. Chirilă 46'
  • yellowcard Gerardo Valenzuela 60'
  • yellowcard Tah Anunga 60'
  • yellowcard Tah Anunga 61'
  • goal Kévin Denkey 65'
  • yellowcard Ayoub Jabbari 83'
  • yellowcard Ayoub Jabbari 84'
  • goal A. Chirilă 90'+2'
  • yellowcard Evander 90'+5'
Major League Soccer MLS Playoffs
Aug 24, 2025 12.30am
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Major League Soccer
May 4, 2025 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Citi Field
  • Julian Fernandez 9' goal
  • Matt Freese 39' yellowcard
  • Hannes Wolf 72' yellowcard
  • Justin Haak 75' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Matt Miazga 13'
  • yellowcard Evander 90'+2'
MLS Playoffs
Nov 9, 2024 9.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Nippert Stadium
  • Pavel Bucha 65' yellowcard
  • Alvas Powell 85' yellowcard
  • Chidozie Awaziem 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Keaton Parks 11'
  • yellowcard Kevin O'Toole 83'
  • yellowcard Santiago Rodriguez 89'
MLS Playoffs
Nov 2, 2024 9.00pm
3
1
HT : 2 0
FT Citi Field
  • Alonso Martinez 22' goal
  • Thiago Martins 40' goal
  • Santiago Rodriguez 53' yellowcard
  • James Sands 72' yellowcard
  • Santiago Rodriguez 90'+7' goal
  • yellowcard Pavel Bucha 43'
  • yellowcard DeAndre Yedlin 56'
  • goal Luca Orellano 65'
  • yellowcard Yuya Kubo 68'
MLS Playoffs
Oct 28, 2024 10.45pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Dr. DY Patil Stadium
  • Luca Orellano 29' yellowcard
  • Yamil Rodrigo Asad 51' goal
  • Yamil Rodrigo Asad 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard James Sands 41'
  • yellowcard Maximiliano Moralez 82'
  • redcard Tayvon Gray 90'+9'