Major League Soccer
May 17, 2026 2.30am
3
3
HT : 1 1
FT Snapdragon Stadium
  • Marcus Ingvartsen 32' goal
  • Oscar Verhoeven 46' yellowcard
  • 46' yellowcard
  • Pedro Soma 46' yellowcard
  • Amahl Pellegrino 66' goal
  • Alex Mighten 69' yellowcard
  • Alejandro Alvarado  78' yellowcard
  • Anisse Saidi 90'+1' yellowcard
  • Marcus Ingvartsen 90'+6' goal
  • goal Kenji Mboma Dem 11'
  • yellowcard Kyle Smith 46'
  • yellowcard Tom Barlow 46'
  • goal Tom Barlow 50'
  • yellowcard Obinna Nwobodo 73'
  • yellowcard Bryan Ramírez 73'
  • yellowcard Ayoub Jabbari 90'+1'
  • goal Tom Barlow 90'+8'

San Diego vs FC Cincinnati - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

San Diego

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
May 14, 2026 2.30am
San Diego 5 - 0 Austin
Goals scored
28
Top scorer
Marcus Ingvartsen

FC Cincinnati

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
May 14, 2026 12.30am
Cincinnati 3 - 2 Inter Miami
Goals scored
30
Top scorer
Kévin Denkey

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Diego win with a probability of 51.25%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 25.82% and a draw had a probability of 22.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a San Diego win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.11%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 (6.34%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.

Result

San Diego 51.25% (-0.32)
Draw 22.93% (+0.33)
FC Cincinnati 25.82% (-0.01)

Both Teams to Score: 

62.12% (+0.18)

Goals

Over 1.5 83.51% (+0.36)
Under 1.5 16.49% (-0.37)
Over 2.5 63.55% (+0.56)
Under 2.5 36.45% (-0.56)
Over 3.5 42.32% (+0.90)
Under 3.5 57.68% (-0.90)
Over 4.5 27.4% (+0.54)
Under 4.5 72.6% (-0.55)

First Half Winner

San Diego 46.18% (+0.68)
Draw 33.99% (-0.29)
FC Cincinnati 19.82% (-0.42)

Team To Score First

San Diego 62.63% (+1.52)
No Goal 4.24% (-0.09)
FC Cincinnati 33.13% (-1.43)

Corners

Over 8 57.69% (-0.24)
Equal 8 11.04% (-0.05)
Under 8 31.27% (+0.27)
Over 9 46.45% (-0.19)
Equal 9 11.24% (-0.04)
Under 9 42.31% (+0.24)
Over 10.5 35.91% (-0.15)
Under 10.5 64.09% (+0.15)

San Diego Goals

Over 1.5 55.68% (+0.26)
Under 1.5 44.32% (-0.26)
Over 2.5 30.41% (+0.38)
Under 2.5 69.59% (-0.38)
Over 3.5 15.36% (+0.27)
Under 3.5 84.64% (-0.27)

FC Cincinnati Goals

Over 0.5 62.75% (+0.23)
Under 0.5 37.25% (-0.23)
Over 1.5 33.31% (+0.56)
Under 1.5 66.69% (-0.55)
Over 2.5 13.03% (+0.34)
Under 2.5 86.97% (-0.35)
Over 3.5 4.4% (+0.21)
Under 3.5 95.6% (-0.21)

Score analysis

San Diego 51.25%
Draw 22.94%
FC Cincinnati 25.82%
San Diego
2-1 @ 9.15% (-0.26)
1-0 @ 7.11% (-0.15)
2-0 @ 6.74% (-0.17)
3-1 @ 5.39% (+0.05)
3-0 @ 4.21% (-0.04)
3-2 @ 3.69% (+0.05)
Other @ 14.96% (+0.21)
Total : 51.25%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.75% (+0.02)
2-2 @ 6.79% (+0.26)
0-0 @ 4.24% (-0.09)
3-3 @ 1.76% (+0.07)
Other @ 0.4% (+0.08)
Total : 22.94%
FC Cincinnati
1-2 @ 6.34% (-0.04)
0-1 @ 5.15% (-0.12)
0-2 @ 3.46% (-0.07)
1-3 @ 2.75% (+0.07)
2-3 @ 2.59% (+0.05)
0-3 @ 1.53% (-0.04)
Other @ 4% (+0.13)
Total : 25.82%