/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fmanlog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fatllog.png)
Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
Reaction
News
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F02%2Fimago1071746759-6983418d6108e862613838.jpg)
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F05%2Fcarrick-2-69fe65cb67a5d048029744.jpg)
Predicted Lineups
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F05%2Fns-photo-badge-v2-email-sportmole-5-69f852bcecea7994816846.jpg){kind=icon}
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 49.19%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 27% and a draw had a probability of 23.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.85%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 (7.03%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.
Result
Manchester United
49.19%
▲
(+0.04)
Draw
23.81%
▲
(+0.01)
Atletico Madrid
27%
▼
(-0.04)
Both Teams to Score:
60.54%
▲
(+0.07)
Goals
Over 1.5
81.43%
▲
(+0.05)
Under 1.5
18.57%
▼
(-0.04)
Over 2.5
60.58%
▲
(+0.04)
Under 2.5
39.42%
▼
(-0.04)
Over 3.5
37.01%
▲
(+0.08)
Under 3.5
62.99%
▼
(-0.08)
Over 4.5
22.43%
▲
(+0.04)
Under 4.5
77.57%
▼
(-0.04)
First Half Winner
Manchester United
38.73%
▼
(-0.08)
Draw
39.92%
▲
(+0.03)
Atletico Madrid
21.35%
▲
(+0.06)
Team To Score First
Manchester United
55.23%
No Goal
5.07%
▼
(-0.01)
Atletico Madrid
39.7%
▲
(+0.02)
Corners
Over 8
61.52%
▼
(-0.10)
Equal 8
10.9%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 8
27.58%
▲
(+0.10)
Over 9
50.09%
▼
(-0.11)
Equal 9
11.43%
Under 9
38.48%
▲
(+0.10)
Over 10.5
39.08%
▼
(-0.11)
Under 10.5
60.92%
▲
(+0.11)
Manchester United Goals
Over 1.5
52.12%
▲
(+0.08)
Under 1.5
47.88%
▼
(-0.08)
Over 2.5
26.18%
▲
(+0.06)
Under 2.5
73.82%
▼
(-0.06)
Over 3.5
10.48%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 3.5
89.52%
▼
(-0.03)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5
65.45%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 0.5
34.55%
▼
(-0.02)
Over 1.5
33.5%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 1.5
66.5%
▲
(+0.02)
Over 2.5
12.91%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 2.5
87.09%
▲
(+0.02)
Over 3.5
4.17%
Under 3.5
95.83%
Score analysis
Manchester United
49.19%
Draw
23.81%
Atletico Madrid
27.01%
Manchester United
2-1
@
10.15%
▲
(+0.01)
1-0 @ 7.85% ▼ (-0.03)
2-0 @ 7%
3-1 @ 5.69% ▲ (+0.03)
3-0 @ 4.44%
3-2 @ 3.86% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 10.2% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 49.19%
1-0 @ 7.85% ▼ (-0.03)
2-0 @ 7%
3-1 @ 5.69% ▲ (+0.03)
3-0 @ 4.44%
3-2 @ 3.86% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 10.2% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 49.19%
Draw
1-1
@
10.45%
2-2 @ 6.3% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 5.07% ▼ (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.71%
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 23.81%
2-2 @ 6.3% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 5.07% ▼ (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.71%
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 23.81%
Atletico Madrid
1-2
@
7.03%
▼
(-0.02)
0-1 @ 5.66% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 3.4%
1-3 @ 2.59%
2-3 @ 2.49%
0-3 @ 1.95% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 3.89%
Total : 27.01%
0-1 @ 5.66% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 3.4%
1-3 @ 2.59%
2-3 @ 2.49%
0-3 @ 1.95% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 3.89%
Total : 27.01%
Head to Head
Fred
90'+1'
Build-up
News
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F07%2Ficonsport-368329-0373-6a6cb956dc539850643493.jpg)
How to watch
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2025%2F10%2Faaa-bm-every-second-media-25-10-69030f1ca83a9232254129.jpg)