Ligue 1 Gameweek 9
Nov 1, 2026 7.45pm
Stade Vélodrome

Marseille vs Toulouse - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Last game
Oct 25, 2026 4.15pm
Marseille 4 - 3 Le Havre
Goals scored
18
Top scorer
Amine Gouiri

Toulouse

All competitions
Last game
Oct 25, 2026 4.15pm
Toulouse 0 - 0 Troyes
Goals scored
12
Top scorer
Casper Tengstedt

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Marseille win with a probability of 46.9%. A win for Toulouse has a probability of 27.6% and a draw has a probability of 25.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Toulouse win is 1-2 (7%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.67%).

Result

Marseille 46.9% ▲ (+0.33)
Draw 25.53% ▼ (-0.03)
Toulouse 27.6% ▼ (-0.30)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.71% ▼ (-0.15)

Goals

Over 1.5 77.03% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 1.5 22.97% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 2.5 54.33% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 2.5 45.67% ▲ (+0.10)
Over 3.5 31.94% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 68.06% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 4.5 18.69% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 4.5 81.31% ▼ (-0.04)

First Half Winner

Marseille 38.23% ▲ (+0.20)
Draw 40.2% ▼ (-0.11)
Toulouse 21.58% ▼ (-0.09)

Team To Score First

Marseille 59.6% ▲ (+0.25)
No Goal 6.49% ▲ (+0.01)
Toulouse 33.91% ▼ (-0.27)

Corners

Over 8 53.95% ▲ (+0.36)
Equal 8 11.98% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 8 34.06% ▼ (-0.34)
Over 9 42.1% ▲ (+0.36)
Equal 9 11.85% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 9 46.05% ▼ (-0.36)
Over 10.5 31.36% ▲ (+0.31)
Under 10.5 68.64% ▼ (-0.30)

Marseille Goals

Over 1.5 46.77% ▲ (+0.18)
Under 1.5 53.23% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 2.5 22.43% ▲ (+0.17)
Under 2.5 77.57% ▼ (-0.17)
Over 3.5 8.61% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 3.5 91.39% ▼ (-0.08)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5 63.96% ▼ (-0.25)
Under 0.5 36.04% ▲ (+0.25)
Over 1.5 31.5% ▼ (-0.29)
Under 1.5 68.5% ▲ (+0.29)
Over 2.5 11.47% ▼ (-0.15)
Under 2.5 88.53% ▲ (+0.16)
Over 3.5 3.46% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 3.5 96.54% ▲ (+0.05)

Score analysis

Marseille 46.9%
Draw 25.53%
Toulouse 27.6%
Marseille
1-0 @ 9.73% ▲ (+0.09)
2-1 @ 9.22%
2-0 @ 7.1% ▲ (+0.06)
3-1 @ 4.79% ▲ (+0.05)
3-0 @ 4.39% ▲ (+0.02)
3-2 @ 3.31% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 8.36% ▲ (+0.09)
Total : 46.9%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.67% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 6.49% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 5.79% ▼ (-0.04)
3-3 @ 1.33% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 25.53%
Toulouse
1-2 @ 7% ▼ (-0.08)
0-1 @ 6.78% ▼ (-0.03)
0-2 @ 3.93% ▼ (-0.05)
1-3 @ 2.67% ▼ (-0.04)
2-3 @ 2.23% ▼ (-0.03)
0-3 @ 1.78% ▼ (-0.06)
Other @ 3.21% ▼ (-0.05)
Total : 27.6%

Head to Head

Ligue 1 Gameweek 25
Mar 7, 2026 8.05pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Stadium de Toulouse
  • Santiago Hidalgo 46' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vossah 69' yellowcard
  • Jacen Russell-Rowe 78' yellowcard
  • Julián Vignolo 79' yellowcard
  • Mario Sauer 84' yellowcard
  • goal Mason Greenwood 18'
  • yellowcard Amine Gouiri 66'
  • yellowcard Tochukwu Nnadi 66'
  • yellowcard Arthur Vermeeren 82'
  • yellowcard Emerson 82'
  • yellowcard Emerson 83'
Coupe de France
Mar 4, 2026 8.00pm
2
2
ET Stade Vélodrome
  • Mason Greenwood 2' yellowcard
  • Ethan Nwaneri 46' yellowcard
  • Igor Paixão 56' goal
  • Bilal Nadir 58' yellowcard
  • Hamed Junior Traoré 90' yellowcard
  • goal Yann Gboho 13'
  • goal Charlie Cresswell 60'
  • yellowcard Warren Kamanzi 65'
  • yellowcard Jacen Russell-Rowe 83'
Ligue 1
Nov 29, 2025 8.05pm
2
2
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Angel Gomes 42' yellowcard
  • Igor Paixao 66' goal
  • Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 74' goal
  • Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 75' yellowcard
  • goal Emersonn Correia da Silva 14'
  • yellowcard Mark McKenzie 81'
  • goal Santiago Hidalgo 90'+2'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 28
Apr 6, 2025 7.45pm
3
2
HT : 1 1
FT Stade Velodrome
  • Gabriel Suazo 21' goal
  • Mason Greenwood 24' yellowcard
  • Mason Greenwood 57' goal
  • Adrien Rabiot 64' goal
  • Bilal Nadir 90'+5' yellowcard
  • goal Frank Magri 28'
  • yellowcard Shavy Babicka 32'
  • yellowcard Frank Magri 56'
  • yellowcard Cristian Casseres Jr 68'
  • goal Vincent Sierro 76'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 3
Aug 31, 2024 8.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 2
FT Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
  • Frank Magri 27' redcard
  • Cristian Casseres Jr 44' yellowcard
  • Aron Donnum 49' yellowcard
  • Shavy Babicka 73' yellowcard
  • Vincent Sierro 82' yellowcard
  • Carles Martinez 86' yellowcard
  • Shavy Babicka 90' goal
  • yellowcard Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 10'
  • goal Mason Greenwood 16'
  • goal Mason Greenwood 17'
  • goal Charlie Cresswell 52' (OG)
  • yellowcard Lilian Brassier 73'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 30
Apr 21, 2024 6.15pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
  • Moussa Diarra 39' yellowcard
  • Rasmus Nicolaisen 45'+2' goal
  • Yann Gboho 82' goal
  • yellowcard Michael Murillo 33'
  • goal Jean Onana 38'
  • yellowcard Azzedine Ounahi 47'
  • goal Faris Moumbagna 90'+6'