Europa League Gameweek 3
Oct 22, 2026 5.45pm
Merkur Arena

Sturm Graz vs Marseille - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Sturm Graz

All competitions
Europa League
Last game
Sep 16, 2026 8.00pm
Sturm Graz 0 - 0 Rennes

Marseille

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Sturm Graz win with a probability of 38.49%. A win for Marseille has a probability of 37.99% and a draw has a probability of 23.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sturm Graz win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (7.81%) and 2-0 (5.83%). The likeliest Marseille win is 1-2 (7.86%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.74%).

Result

Sturm Graz 38.49% ▼ (-0.18)
Draw 23.52% ▲ (+0.15)
Marseille 37.99% ▲ (+0.07)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.92% ▼ (-0.49)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.86% ▼ (-0.55)
Under 1.5 21.14% ▲ (+0.56)
Over 2.5 56.46% ▼ (-1.09)
Under 2.5 43.54% ▲ (+1.09)
Over 3.5 34.26% ▼ (-1.04)
Under 3.5 65.74% ▲ (+1.04)
Over 4.5 20.78% ▼ (-0.74)
Under 4.5 79.22% ▲ (+0.74)

First Half Winner

Sturm Graz 29.43% ▲ (+0.47)
Draw 39.81% ▲ (+0.64)
Marseille 30.76% ▼ (-1.09)

Team To Score First

Sturm Graz 51.11% ▲ (+1.89)
No Goal 5.56% ▲ (+0.12)
Marseille 43.33% ▼ (-2.00)

Corners

Over 8 52.71% ▼ (-2.93)
Equal 8 11.08% ▼ (-0.15)
Under 8 36.21% ▲ (+3.07)
Over 9 41.84% ▼ (-2.56)
Equal 9 10.87% ▼ (-0.38)
Under 9 47.29% ▲ (+2.93)
Over 10.5 31.99% ▼ (-2.04)
Under 10.5 68.01% ▲ (+2.04)

Sturm Graz Goals

Over 1.5 41.1% ▼ (-0.73)
Under 1.5 58.9% ▲ (+0.73)
Over 2.5 17.9% ▼ (-0.73)
Under 2.5 82.1% ▲ (+0.72)
Over 3.5 6.86% ▼ (-0.22)
Under 3.5 93.14% ▲ (+0.22)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5 71.13% ▼ (-0.29)
Under 0.5 28.87% ▲ (+0.29)
Over 1.5 40.25% ▼ (-0.55)
Under 1.5 59.75% ▲ (+0.55)
Over 2.5 18.07% ▼ (-0.49)
Under 2.5 81.93% ▲ (+0.49)
Over 3.5 6.72% ▼ (-0.24)
Under 3.5 93.28% ▲ (+0.24)

Score analysis

Sturm Graz 38.49%
Draw 23.52%
Marseille 37.98%
Sturm Graz
2-1 @ 8.5%
1-0 @ 7.81% ▲ (+0.26)
2-0 @ 5.83% ▲ (+0.10)
3-1 @ 3.88% ▼ (-0.21)
3-0 @ 2.98%
3-2 @ 2.81% ▼ (-0.15)
Other @ 6.68% ▼ (-0.17)
Total : 38.49%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.74% ▲ (+0.28)
2-2 @ 5.67% ▼ (-0.07)
0-0 @ 5.56% ▲ (+0.12)
3-3 @ 1.37% ▼ (-0.14)
Other @ 0.18% ▼ (-0.06)
Total : 23.52%
Marseille
1-2 @ 7.86% ▼ (-0.03)
0-1 @ 7.76% ▲ (+0.21)
0-2 @ 5.84% ▲ (+0.17)
1-3 @ 3.93% ▼ (-0.03)
2-3 @ 3.2% ▼ (-0.05)
0-3 @ 2.85% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 6.54% ▼ (-0.18)
Total : 37.98%