Ligue 1 Gameweek 5
Sep 20, 2026 7.45pm
Stade Vélodrome

Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Last game
Sep 11, 2026 7.45pm
Rennes 1 - 0 Marseille
Goals scored
6
Top scorer
Amine Gouiri

Paris Saint-Germain

All competitions
Last game
Sep 13, 2026 7.45pm
Brest 0 - 1 PSG
Goals scored
6
Top scorer
Ferran Torres

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 47.84%. A win for Marseille has a probability of 28.94% and a draw has a probability of 23.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win is 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (7.52%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Marseille win is 2-1 (7.1%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.07%).

Result

Marseille 28.94% (-0.67)
Draw 23.21% (+0.20)
Paris Saint-Germain 47.84% (+0.45)

Both Teams to Score: 

60.89% (-1.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 81.58% (-0.66)
Under 1.5 18.42% (+0.67)
Over 2.5 60.83% (-0.96)
Under 2.5 39.17% (+0.96)
Over 3.5 37.77% (-1.49)
Under 3.5 62.23% (+1.49)
Over 4.5 23.07% (-1.22)
Under 4.5 76.93% (+1.22)

First Half Winner

Marseille 25.3% (-1.90)
Draw 36.75% (-0.21)
Paris Saint-Germain 37.95% (+2.10)

Team To Score First

Marseille 42.97% (-2.82)
No Goal 4.82% (+0.23)
Paris Saint-Germain 52.21% (+2.61)

Corners

Over 8 48.91% (+0.22)
Equal 8 12.35% (+1.09)
Under 8 38.74% (-1.31)
Over 9 37.18% (-0.82)
Equal 9 11.73% (+1.04)
Under 9 51.09% (-0.22)
Over 10.5 26.96% (-1.63)
Under 10.5 73.03% (+1.63)

Marseille Goals

Over 1.5 35.15% (-0.93)
Under 1.5 64.85% (+0.93)
Over 2.5 14.02% (-0.79)
Under 2.5 85.98% (+0.79)
Over 3.5 4.74% (-0.44)
Under 3.5 95.26% (+0.45)

Paris Saint-Germain Goals

Over 0.5 79.05% (+0.15)
Under 0.5 20.95% (-0.16)
Over 1.5 51.28% (-0.18)
Under 1.5 48.72% (+0.18)
Over 2.5 25.73% (-0.47)
Under 2.5 74.27% (+0.46)
Over 3.5 10.31% (-0.50)
Under 3.5 89.69% (+0.50)

Score analysis

Marseille 28.95%
Draw 23.21%
Paris Saint-Germain 47.85%
Marseille
2-1 @ 7.1% (+0.09)
1-0 @ 6.09% (+0.17)
2-0 @ 3.78% (-0.17)
3-1 @ 3.08% (-0.13)
3-2 @ 2.63% (-0.23)
3-0 @ 1.84% (+0.07)
Other @ 4.43% (-0.46)
Total : 28.95%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.07% (+0.11)
2-2 @ 6.28% (-0.10)
0-0 @ 4.82% (+0.23)
3-3 @ 1.73% (-0.07)
Other @ 0.31% (+0.03)
Total : 23.21%
Paris Saint-Germain
1-2 @ 9.75% (+0.27)
0-1 @ 7.52% (+0.25)
0-2 @ 6.89% (+0.34)
1-3 @ 5.34% (-0.08)
0-3 @ 4.38% (+0.14)
2-3 @ 3.97% (+0.04)
Other @ 10% (-0.52)
Total : 47.85%

Head to Head

Ligue 1 Gameweek 21
Feb 8, 2026 7.45pm
5
0
HT : 4 0
FT Parc des Princes
  • Ousmane Dembele 12' goal
  • Ousmane Dembélé 12' goal
  • Ousmane Dembele 37' goal
  • Ousmane Dembélé 37' goal
  • Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 62' yellowcard
  • Facundo Medina 64' goal
  • Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 66' goal
  • Lee Kang-in 68' yellowcard
  • Kang-in Lee 68' yellowcard
  • Lee Kang-in 74' goal
  • Kang-in Lee 74' goal
  • Pedro Fernández Sarmiento 75' yellowcard
  • Lucas Hernandez 75' yellowcard
  • Goncalo Ramos 75' yellowcard
  • Pedro Fernández 75' yellowcard
  • Lucas Hernández 75' yellowcard
  • Gonçalo Ramos 75' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Igor Paixao 46'
  • yellowcard Igor Paixão 46'
  • yellowcard Himad Abdelli 62'
  • yellowcard Bilal Nadir 80'
Trophee des Champions Gameweek 29
Jan 8, 2026 6.00pm
2
2
ET Jaber Al-Ahmad International Stadium
  • Ousmane Dembele 13' goal
  • Bradley Barcola 72' yellowcard
  • Goncalo Ramos 89' yellowcard
  • Senny Mayulu 89' yellowcard
  • Goncalo Ramos 90' yellowcard
  • Senny Mayulu 90' yellowcard
  • Goncalo Ramos 90'+5' goal
  • yellowcard Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 67'
  • yellowcard Hamed Traore 67'
  • yellowcard Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 68'
  • yellowcard Hamed Traore 68'
  • yellowcard Mason Greenwood 76'
  • yellowcard Michael Murillo 77'
  • yellowcard Michael Murillo 78'
  • goal William Pacho 87' (OG)
  • yellowcard Matt O'Riley 90'
  • yellowcard Matt O'Riley 90'+2'
Ligue 1
Sep 22, 2025 7.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Ligue 1 Gameweek 26
Mar 16, 2025 7.45pm
3
1
HT : 2 0
FT Parc des Princes
  • Ousmane Dembele 17' goal
  • Nuno Mendes 26' yellowcard
  • Nuno Mendes 42' goal
  • Pol Lirola 76' goal
  • goal Amine Gouiri 51'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 9
Oct 27, 2024 7.45pm
0
3
HT : 0 3
FT Stade Velodrome
  • Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 18' yellowcard
  • Amine Harit 20' redcard
  • goal Joao Neves 7'
  • goal Leonardo Balerdi 29' (OG)
  • goal Bradley Barcola 40'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 27
Mar 31, 2024 7.45pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT Stade Velodrome
  • yellowcard Lucas Beraldo 15'
  • yellowcard Lucas Hernandez 38'
  • yellowcard Danilo Pereira 40'
  • redcard Lucas Beraldo 40'
  • yellowcard Gianluigi Donnarumma 45'
  • goal Vitinha 53'
  • goal Goncalo Ramos 85'