Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 16

Dec 29, 2022 at 8pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
6 - 1
Toulouse

Rongier (13'), Nicolaisen (41' og.), Kolasinac (51'), Payet (61'), Under (80' pen.), Tavares (82')

FT(HT: 2-0)

van den Boomen (66' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Toulouse, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Monaco 2-3 Marseille
Sunday, November 13 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Toulouse

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Galatasaray 2-1 Toulouse
Friday, December 16 at 2pm in Club Friendlies 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 54.31%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 23.41% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.68%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-2 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.26%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Toulouse
54.31% ( -0.14)	22.27% ( 0.09)	23.41% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 59.04% (

-0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.67% (

-0.35)

40.33% (

0.36)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.29% (

-0.37)

62.71% (

0.36)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.16% (

-0.17)

14.83% (

0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.85% (

-0.32)

43.14% (

0.32)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.33% (

-0.15)

30.67% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.08% (

-0.18)

66.92% (

0.18)

Score Analysis

Marseille 54.31%

Toulouse 23.41%

Draw 22.27%

Marseille	Draw	Toulouse
2-1 @ 9.79% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.68% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 8.28% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 6.23% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 5.27% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.68% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 2.51% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.76% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.13% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.05% Total : 54.31%	1-1 @ 10.26% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.79% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.22% Total : 22.27%	1-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.38% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.28% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0) Other @ 2.88% Total : 23.41%