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Ligue 1
Marseille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 16
Dec 29, 2022 at 8pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Toulouse

Marseille
6 - 1
Toulouse

Rongier (13'), Nicolaisen (41' og.), Kolasinac (51'), Payet (61'), Under (80' pen.), Tavares (82')
Clauss (65')
FT(HT: 2-0)
van den Boomen (66' pen.)
Mawissa (79'), van den Boomen (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Toulouse, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Monaco 2-3 Marseille
Sunday, November 13 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Toulouse

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Galatasaray 2-1 Toulouse
Friday, December 16 at 2pm in Club Friendlies 1

We said: Marseille 2-0 Toulouse

 Though Marseille have won only one of their last four Ligue 1 home games, they have been presented with a favourable fixture to kick off their post-Christmas campaign and can take maximum points on Thursday. A lack of goals has seen Toulouse toil on the road, and they have already lost to several other top-flight heavyweights this term. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 54.31%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 23.41% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.68%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-2 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.26%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
MarseilleDrawToulouse
54.31% (-0.14 -0.14) 22.27% (0.09 0.09) 23.41% (0.051000000000002 0.05)
Both teams to score 59.04% (-0.247 -0.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.67% (-0.354 -0.35)40.33% (0.355 0.36)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.29% (-0.365 -0.37)62.71% (0.36499999999999 0.36)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.16% (-0.16799999999999 -0.17)14.83% (0.169 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.85% (-0.323 -0.32)43.14% (0.322 0.32)
Toulouse Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.33% (-0.15100000000001 -0.15)30.67% (0.152 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.08% (-0.18 -0.18)66.92% (0.181 0.18)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 54.31%
    Toulouse 23.41%
    Draw 22.27%
MarseilleDrawToulouse
2-1 @ 9.79% (0.0019999999999989 0)
1-0 @ 8.68% (0.089 0.09)
2-0 @ 8.28% (0.037000000000001 0.04)
3-1 @ 6.23% (-0.036 -0.04)
3-0 @ 5.27% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.68% (-0.036 -0.04)
4-1 @ 2.97% (-0.035 -0.03)
4-0 @ 2.51% (-0.019 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.76% (-0.028 -0.03)
5-1 @ 1.13% (-0.02 -0.02)
5-0 @ 0.96% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 3.05%
Total : 54.31%
1-1 @ 10.26% (0.07 0.07)
2-2 @ 5.79% (-0.023 -0.02)
0-0 @ 4.55% (0.074 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.45% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 22.27%
1-2 @ 6.06% (0.012 0.01)
0-1 @ 5.38% (0.065 0.06)
0-2 @ 3.18% (0.026 0.03)
1-3 @ 2.39% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.28% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.25% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 23.41%

How you voted: Marseille vs Toulouse

Marseille
89.3%
Draw
9.5%
Toulouse
1.2%
84
Head to Head
Feb 8, 2020 4.30pm
Marseille
1-0
Toulouse
Payet (51')
Gonzalez (15')

Makengo (61'), Sylla (71')
Nov 24, 2019 8pm
Toulouse
0-2
Marseille

Sangare (32'), Isimat-Mirin (63'), Amian (86')
Moreira (41')
Benedetto (76'), Radonjic (79')
Strootman (70'), Radonjic (80'), Kamara (82')
May 18, 2019 8pm
Toulouse
2-5
Marseille
Leya Iseka (26'), Gradel (61')
Jullien (22')
Sanson (29'), Sakai (50'), N'Jie (76'), Thauvin (90')
Amavi (39'), Rami (59')
Aug 10, 2018 7.45pm
Marseille
4-0
Toulouse
Payet (45' pen., 62'), Germain (89'), Thauvin (90')
Amavi (46')

Jullien (11'), Amian (44'), Sangare (55')
Mar 11, 2018 8pm
Toulouse
1-2
Marseille
Mubele (19')
Sylla (50'), Gradel (79'), Yago (86')
Ocampos (10'), Mitroglou (79')
Zambo Anguissa (43'), Amavi (63'), Payet (90')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CParis Saint-GermainPSG312010176294770
2MonacoMonaco31177758411758
3Brest31168749331656
4Lille311510645271855
5Nice31149836251151
6Lens31137114034646
7Marseille31111194738944
8Lyon31135134251-944
9Rennes31119114841742
10Toulouse311010113840-240
11Reims31117133845-740
12Montpellier HSCMontpellier31911113943-437
13StrasbourgStrasbourg3199133444-1036
14NantesNantes3195172949-2032
15Le HavreLe Havre31611143041-1129
16Metz3185183251-1929
17Lorient3168173761-2426
18Clermont31510162550-2525
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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