Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 22

Feb 15, 2025 at 4pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
5 - 1
St Etienne

Gouiri (27', 60'), Greenwood (50' pen.), Murillo (58'), Rabiot (77')
Cornelius (68')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Stassin (79')
Stassin (15')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Saint-Etienne, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Angers 0-2 Marseille
Sunday, February 9 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Saint-Etienne

All competitions

Last Game: St Etienne 0-2 Rennes
Saturday, February 8 at 8.05pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 73.65%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 10.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 3-0 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.44%), while for a Saint-Etienne win it was 1-2 (3.11%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Saint-Etienne
73.65% ( -0.32)	15.91% ( 0.18)	10.44% ( 0.14)

Both teams to score 52.01% (

-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.78% (

-0.47)

35.22% (

0.47)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.76% (

-0.52)

57.24% (

0.52)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.79% (

-0.18)

8.21% (

0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

71.27% (

-0.46)

28.73% (

0.45)

Saint-Etienne Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.66% (

-0.06)

43.34% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.42% (

-0.05)

79.58% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Marseille 73.64%

Saint-Etienne 10.44%

Draw 15.91%

Marseille	Draw	Saint-Etienne
2-0 @ 11.11% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.3% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 9.27% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 8.89% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 7.75% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 5.79% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 4.84% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 2.9% ( -0.06) 5-1 @ 2.42% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.03) 6-0 @ 1.21% ( -0.04) 5-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.02) 6-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.89% Total : 73.64%	1-1 @ 7.44% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 3.89% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 3.56% ( 0.08) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 15.91%	1-2 @ 3.11% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 2.97% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.08% ( 0) Other @ 2.04% Total : 10.44%