Liga MX | Gameweek 3
Jan 24, 2021 at 6pm UK
Estadio Nemesio Díez

Toluca
2 - 0
Necaxa

Estrada (27' pen.), Plata (90+4')
Sambueza (33'), Rigonato Rodrigues (55')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Dominguez (26'), Cabrera (30'), de Luna (46'), Gonzalez (70')
Gonzalez (74')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Necaxa.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 42.6%. A win for Necaxa had a probability of 30.92% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Necaxa win was 0-1 (9.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
TolucaDrawNecaxa
42.6%26.48%30.92%
Both teams to score 51.39%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.77%53.23%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.21%74.79%
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.25%24.75%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.69%59.31%
Necaxa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.3%31.7%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.88%68.12%
Score Analysis
    Toluca 42.59%
    Necaxa 30.92%
    Draw 26.47%
TolucaDrawNecaxa
1-0 @ 10.95%
2-1 @ 8.79%
2-0 @ 7.65%
3-1 @ 4.09%
3-0 @ 3.56%
3-2 @ 2.35%
4-1 @ 1.43%
4-0 @ 1.24%
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 42.59%
1-1 @ 12.58%
0-0 @ 7.85%
2-2 @ 5.05%
Other @ 1%
Total : 26.47%
0-1 @ 9.01%
1-2 @ 7.23%
0-2 @ 5.18%
1-3 @ 2.77%
0-3 @ 1.98%
2-3 @ 1.93%
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 30.92%