Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 56.34%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 20.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.88%) and 0-2 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%), while for a Moreirense win it was 1-0 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.