Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 53.61%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 21.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.19%) and 1-2 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-0 (7.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.