Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 53.88%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 21.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.59%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (6.98%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Corinthians would win this match.