League One Gameweek 38
Mar 17, 2026 7.45pm
Kenilworth Road Stadium

Luton Town vs Exeter City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Luton Town

All competitions
Last game
Mar 10, 2026 7.45pm
Doncaster 1 - 1 Luton
Goals scored
44
Top scorer
Gideon Kadua

Exeter City

All competitions
Last game
Mar 10, 2026 7.45pm
Exeter 0 - 1 Lincoln
Goals scored
40
Top scorer
Jayden Wareham

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Luton Town win with a probability of 54.57%. A draw has a probability of 23.85% and a win for Exeter City has a probability of 21.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (10.17%) and 2-0 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.37%) , while for a Exeter City win it is 0-1 (6.44%).

Result

Luton Town 54.57% (-0.04)
Draw 23.85%
Exeter City 21.57%

Both Teams to Score: 

52.37%

Goals

Over 1.5 75.59% (+0.03)
Under 1.5 24.41% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 51.49% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 48.51% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 29%
Under 3.5 71%
Over 4.5 16.69% (+0.02)
Under 4.5 83.31% (-0.01)

First Half Winner

Luton Town 42.52%
Draw 39.15%
Exeter City 18.33%

Team To Score First

Luton Town 63.51% (+0.01)
No Goal 6.52% (-0.02)
Exeter City 29.97%

Corners

Over 8 63.89%
Equal 8 10.6%
Under 8 25.51%
Over 9 52.56%
Equal 9 11.33%
Under 9 36.11%
Over 10.5 41.44%
Under 10.5 58.56%

Luton Town Goals

Over 1.5 50.64%
Under 1.5 49.36%
Over 2.5 24.43%
Under 2.5 75.57%
Over 3.5 9.53%
Under 3.5 90.47%

Exeter City Goals

Over 0.5 57.54% (+0.04)
Under 0.5 42.46% (-0.04)
Over 1.5 23.98% (+0.06)
Under 1.5 76.02% (-0.05)
Over 2.5 7.33% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 92.67% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 1.83% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 98.17% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Luton Town 54.57%
Draw 23.85%
Exeter City 21.59%
Luton Town
1-0 @ 11.46% (-0.01)
2-1 @ 10.17% (+0.01)
2-0 @ 9.54% (-0.03)
3-1 @ 5.58%
3-0 @ 5.49%
3-2 @ 2.87%
Other @ 9.46% (-0.01)
Total : 54.57%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.37% (-0.02)
0-0 @ 6.52% (-0.02)
2-2 @ 4.93% (+0.01)
Other @ 0.07% (+0.02)
Total : 23.85%
Exeter City
0-1 @ 6.44% (-0.01)
1-2 @ 5.67% (+0.02)
0-2 @ 3.18% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 1.81%
2-3 @ 1.57%
0-3 @ 1.16% (+0.02)
Other @ 1.76% (+0.02)
Total : 21.59%

Head to Head

League One Gameweek 24
Jan 1, 2026 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT St James Park
  • P. Sweeney 50' goal
  • Carlos Gomes 63' yellowcard
  • R. Cole 70' yellowcard
  • Luca Woodhouse 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jacob Brown 62'
  • yellowcard Nahki Wells 62'
  • yellowcard Zack Nelson 76'
  • yellowcard Lamine Dabo 76'
EFL Trophy
Dec 2, 2025 7.00pm
4
0
HT : 3 0
FT
  • Lasse Nordas 13' goal
  • Shayden Morris 34' goal
  • Lasse Nordas 40' goal
  • Zack Nelson 67' goal
  • 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Jack Lorentzen-Jones 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jack Fitzwater 39'
  • yellowcard Tom Dean 52'
  • yellowcard Ilmari Niskanen 71'
  • yellowcard Edward Francis 72'
  • yellowcard Jayden Wareham 84'
EFL Cup
Sep 26, 2023 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT St James Park
  • Demetri Mitchell 48' yellowcard
  • Vincent Harper 51' yellowcard
  • Viljami Sinisalo 78' yellowcard
  • Demetri Mitchell 83' goal
  • Demetri Mitchell 88' redcard
  • Tom Carroll 90'+6' yellowcard
  • Pierce Sweeney 90'+6' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Teden Mengi 35'
  • yellowcard Tahith Chong 42'
League Two
Feb 3, 2018 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Harry Cornick 38' goal
League Two
Oct 17, 2017 7.45pm
1
4
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Jake Taylor 21' goal
  • Troy Brown 37' yellowcard
  • Dean Moxey 74' yellowcard
  • goal James Collins 8'
  • yellowcard Glen Rea 45'
  • goal Daniel Potts 46'
  • goal Danny Hylton 52'
  • goal Harry Cornick 55'
  • yellowcard Daniel Potts 80'
League Two
Mar 18, 2017 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Alan Sheehan 56' yellowcard
  • Danny Hylton 68' goal
  • Jack Senior 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ollie Watkins 37'
  • goal Jake Taylor 59'