Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 53.9%. A draw had a probability of 24.04% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 22.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.09%) and 2-0 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.38%) , while for a Exeter City win it was 0-1 (6.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.