League One Gameweek 38
Mar 17, 2026 7.45pm
3
2
HT : 2 1
FT Kenilworth Road Stadium
  • Kasey Palmer 13' goal
  • Jordan Clark 29' yellowcard
  • Hakeem Odofin 45'+5' goal
  • Elijah Adebayo 75' yellowcard
  • J. Richards 75' yellowcard
  • Davy van den Berg 90' yellowcard
  • Davy van den Berg 90'+2' yellowcard
  • Sverre Sandal 90'+5' yellowcard
  • goal R. Cole 25'
  • goal I. Niskanen 49'
  • yellowcard Danny Andrew 55'
  • yellowcard Jayden Wareham 55'
  • yellowcard Akeel Higgins 65'
  • yellowcard S. Cox 80'
  • yellowcard K. McDonald 80'

Luton Town vs Exeter City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Luton Town

All competitions
Last game
Mar 14, 2026 3.00pm
Wycombe 1 - 2 Luton
Goals scored
50
Top scorer
Gideon Kadua

Exeter City

All competitions
Last game
Mar 14, 2026 3.00pm
Exeter 0 - 4 Cardiff
Goals scored
42
Top scorer
Jayden Wareham

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 53.9%. A draw had a probability of 24.04% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 22.05%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.09%) and 2-0 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.38%) , while for a Exeter City win it was 0-1 (6.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.

Result

Luton Town 53.9% (-0.51)
Draw 24.04% (+0.19)
Exeter City 22.05% (+0.32)

Both Teams to Score: 

52.65% (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.47% (-0.27)
Under 1.5 24.53% (+0.27)
Over 2.5 51.44% (-0.25)
Under 2.5 48.56% (+0.25)
Over 3.5 29.05% (-0.17)
Under 3.5 70.95% (+0.18)
Over 4.5 16.72% (-0.11)
Under 4.5 83.28% (+0.11)

First Half Winner

Luton Town 41.88% (-0.65)
Draw 39.16% (+0.01)
Exeter City 18.96% (+0.64)

Team To Score First

Luton Town 62.38% (-1.16)
No Goal 6.64% (+0.17)
Exeter City 30.98% (+1.00)

Corners

Over 8 65.3% (+1.40)
Equal 8 10.8% (+0.21)
Under 8 23.9% (-1.61)
Over 9 53.58% (+1.02)
Equal 9 11.72% (+0.39)
Under 9 34.7% (-1.40)
Over 10.5 41.98% (+0.54)
Under 10.5 58.02% (-0.54)

Luton Town Goals

Over 1.5 50.15% (-0.54)
Under 1.5 49.85% (+0.54)
Over 2.5 24.13% (-0.34)
Under 2.5 75.87% (+0.35)
Over 3.5 9.38% (-0.18)
Under 3.5 90.62% (+0.19)

Exeter City Goals

Over 0.5 57.96% (+0.21)
Under 0.5 42.04% (-0.21)
Over 1.5 24.47% (+0.25)
Under 1.5 75.53% (-0.25)
Over 2.5 7.52% (+0.06)
Under 2.5 92.48% (-0.07)
Over 3.5 1.95% (+0.08)
Under 3.5 98.05% (-0.08)

Score analysis

Luton Town 53.91%
Draw 24.04%
Exeter City 22.05%
Luton Town
1-0 @ 11.36% (-0.01)
2-1 @ 10.09% (-0.08)
2-0 @ 9.37% (-0.12)
3-1 @ 5.49% (-0.10)
3-0 @ 5.37% (-0.09)
3-2 @ 2.93% (+0.05)
Other @ 9.3% (-0.18)
Total : 53.91%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.38% (+0.04)
0-0 @ 6.64% (+0.17)
2-2 @ 4.98% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.08%
Total : 24.04%
Exeter City
0-1 @ 6.53% (+0.09)
1-2 @ 5.76% (+0.07)
0-2 @ 3.28% (+0.07)
1-3 @ 1.85% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 1.58% (-0.03)
0-3 @ 1.18% (+0.03)
Other @ 1.87% (+0.08)
Total : 22.05%

Head to Head

League One Gameweek 24
Jan 1, 2026 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT St James Park
  • P. Sweeney 50' goal
  • Carlos Gomes 63' yellowcard
  • R. Cole 70' yellowcard
  • Luca Woodhouse 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jacob Brown 62'
  • yellowcard Nahki Wells 62'
  • yellowcard Zack Nelson 76'
  • yellowcard Lamine Dabo 76'
EFL Trophy
Dec 2, 2025 7.00pm
4
0
HT : 3 0
FT
  • Lasse Nordas 13' goal
  • Shayden Morris 34' goal
  • Lasse Nordas 40' goal
  • Zack Nelson 67' goal
  • 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Jack Lorentzen-Jones 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jack Fitzwater 39'
  • yellowcard Tom Dean 52'
  • yellowcard Ilmari Niskanen 71'
  • yellowcard Edward Francis 72'
  • yellowcard Jayden Wareham 84'
EFL Cup
Sep 26, 2023 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT St James Park
  • Demetri Mitchell 48' yellowcard
  • Vincent Harper 51' yellowcard
  • Viljami Sinisalo 78' yellowcard
  • Demetri Mitchell 83' goal
  • Demetri Mitchell 88' redcard
  • Tom Carroll 90'+6' yellowcard
  • Pierce Sweeney 90'+6' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Teden Mengi 35'
  • yellowcard Tahith Chong 42'
League Two
Feb 3, 2018 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Harry Cornick 38' goal
League Two
Oct 17, 2017 7.45pm
1
4
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Jake Taylor 21' goal
  • Troy Brown 37' yellowcard
  • Dean Moxey 74' yellowcard
  • goal James Collins 8'
  • yellowcard Glen Rea 45'
  • goal Daniel Potts 46'
  • goal Danny Hylton 52'
  • goal Harry Cornick 55'
  • yellowcard Daniel Potts 80'
League Two
Mar 18, 2017 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Alan Sheehan 56' yellowcard
  • Danny Hylton 68' goal
  • Jack Senior 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ollie Watkins 37'
  • goal Jake Taylor 59'