Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wigan Athletic win with a probability of 37.07%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 36.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wigan Athletic win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.07%) and 2-0 (5.71%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 0-1 (9.39%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.