Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 56.85%. A draw had a probability of 21.58% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 21.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.32%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.89%) , while for a Luton Town win it was 1-2 (5.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.