Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 38.16%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 36.74% and a draw had a probability of 25.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.23%) and 2-0 (5.77%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 1-2 (8.49%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.