EFL Trophy
Mar 4, 2026 7.30pm
Kenilworth Road Stadium

Luton Town vs Northampton Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Luton Town

All competitions

Northampton Town

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Luton Town win with a probability of 62.02%. A draw has a probability of 22.53% and a win for Northampton Town has a probability of 15.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (11.23%) and 2-1 (10.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.46%) , while for a Northampton Town win it is 0-1 (5.81%).

Result

Luton Town 62.02% (-0.03)
Draw 22.53% (+0.08)
Northampton Town 15.46% (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

45.86% (+0.09)

Goals

Over 1.5 73.97% (+0.07)
Under 1.5 26.03% (-0.06)
Over 2.5 50.33% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 49.67% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 27.32% (+0.06)
Under 3.5 72.68% (-0.05)
Over 4.5 16.8% (+0.02)
Under 4.5 83.2% (-0.01)

First Half Winner

Luton Town 47.69%
Draw 37.99%
Northampton Town 14.32%

Team To Score First

Luton Town 66.71% (+0.06)
No Goal 7.01%
Northampton Town 26.28% (-0.06)

Corners

Over 8 62.18%
Equal 8 10.59%
Under 8 27.23%
Over 9 51.01%
Equal 9 11.17%
Under 9 37.82%
Over 10.5 40.17%
Under 10.5 59.83%

Luton Town Goals

Over 1.5 54.83% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 45.17% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 28.38% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 71.62% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 11.75% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 88.25% (+0.02)

Northampton Town Goals

Over 0.5 49.26% (+0.12)
Under 0.5 50.74% (-0.12)
Over 1.5 17.17% (+0.07)
Under 1.5 82.83% (-0.07)
Over 2.5 4.52% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 95.48% (-0.01)
Over 3.5 1.03% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 98.97% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Luton Town 62.02%
Draw 22.52%
Northampton Town 15.47%
Luton Town
1-0 @ 13.22% (-0.03)
2-0 @ 11.23% (-0.02)
2-1 @ 10.21% (+0.02)
3-0 @ 7.76%
3-1 @ 5.61% (+0.03)
3-2 @ 2.46% (+0.03)
Other @ 11.53% (-0.04)
Total : 62.02%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.46% (+0.03)
0-0 @ 7.01%
2-2 @ 4.03% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.22% (+0.02)
Total : 22.52%
Northampton Town
0-1 @ 5.81% (+0.01)
1-2 @ 4.22%
0-2 @ 1.94% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.81%
Total : 15.47%

Head to Head

League One
Oct 25, 2025 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Club Friendlies 1
Jul 16, 2022 1.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Mitchell Pinnock 7' goal
  • goal Elijah Adebayo 54'
  • goal Dan Potts 56'
League Two
Apr 30, 2016 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Zander Diamond 4' goal
  • Josh Lelan 17' yellowcard
  • John Marquis 36' goal
  • yellowcard Cameron McGeehan 73'
League Two
Dec 12, 2015 3.00pm
3
4
HT : 1 3
FT
  • Paul Benson 9' goal
  • Paul Benson 52' goal
  • Danny Green 66' goal
  • Magnus Okuonghae 69' yellowcard
  • Danny Green 88' yellowcard
  • Scott Griffiths 91' yellowcard
  • goal John-Joe O'Toole 18'
  • goal Lawson D'Ath 30'
  • goal Marc Richards 42'
  • goal Ricky Holmes 69'
League Two
Mar 28, 2015 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Brendan Moloney 41' yellowcard
  • Ricky Holmes 64' goal
  • James Gray 86' goal
  • yellowcard Lewis Kinsella 11'
  • goal Alex Lawless 46'
  • yellowcard Paul Benson 52'
  • yellowcard Michael Harriman 63'
  • yellowcard Nathan Doyle 89'
League Two
Oct 25, 2014 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Paul Benson 77' yellowcard
  • Luke Wilkinson 87' yellowcard
  • Luke Guttridge 91' goal
  • yellowcard Enda Stevens 71'
  • yellowcard Gregor Robertson 85'
  • yellowcard Ben Tozer 88'