League One Gameweek 17
Exeter
Mar 3, 2026 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT St James Park
Burton Albion
  • Akeel Higgins 61' yellowcard
  • Joshua Brendan David Magennis 71' yellowcard
  • Joshua Brendan David Magennis 73' goal
  • K. McDonald 83' yellowcard
  • goal U. Godwin-Malife 64'
  • yellowcard J. McKiernan 70'

Exeter City vs Burton Albion - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Exeter City

All competitions
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 3.00pm
Exeter 1 - 5 Bolton
Goals scored
40
Top scorer
Jayden Wareham

Burton Albion

All competitions
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 3.00pm
Wycombe 3 - 0 Burton Albion
Goals scored
41
Top scorer
Jake Beesley

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 44.75%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 28.08% and a draw had a probability of 27.17%.

The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 0-1 (8.67%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.

Result

Exeter City 44.75% ▼ (-0.11)
Draw 27.17% ▲ (+0.30)
Burton Albion 28.08% ▼ (-0.20)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.95% ▼ (-0.20)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.27% ▲ (+0.29)
Under 1.5 28.73% ▼ (-0.29)
Over 2.5 46.09% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 2.5 53.91% ▼ (-0.11)
Over 3.5 24.78% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 75.22% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 4.5 13.17% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 4.5 86.83% ▲ (+0.04)

First Half Winner

Exeter City 31.66% ▼ (-0.80)
Draw 44.14% ▲ (+0.15)
Burton Albion 24.21% ▲ (+0.67)

Team To Score First

Exeter City 51.33% ▼ (-1.07)
No Goal 8.31% ▲ (+0.09)
Burton Albion 40.36% ▲ (+0.98)

Corners

Over 8 58.67% ▼ (-0.29)
Equal 8 11.67% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 8 29.66% ▲ (+0.25)
Over 9 46.68% ▼ (-0.32)
Equal 9 11.99% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 9 41.33% ▲ (+0.29)
Over 10.5 35.42% ▼ (-0.30)
Under 10.5 64.58% ▲ (+0.30)

Exeter City Goals

Over 1.5 40.93% ▲ (+0.30)
Under 1.5 59.07% ▼ (-0.30)
Over 2.5 16.86% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 2.5 83.14% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 3.5 5.74% ▲ (+0.12)
Under 3.5 94.26% ▼ (-0.11)

Burton Albion Goals

Over 0.5 62.63% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 0.5 37.37% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 1.5 27.89% ▼ (-0.17)
Under 1.5 72.11% ▲ (+0.16)
Over 2.5 9.2% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 2.5 90.8% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 2.49% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 97.51% ▲ (+0.04)

Score analysis

Exeter City 44.74%
Draw 27.17%
Burton Albion 28.08%
Exeter City
1-0 @ 11.74% ▼ (-0.34)
2-1 @ 9.19% ▲ (+0.23)
2-0 @ 8% ▲ (+0.02)
3-1 @ 4.17% ▼ (-0.12)
3-0 @ 3.68% ▲ (+0.07)
3-2 @ 2.33% ▼ (-0.09)
Other @ 5.63% ▲ (+0.12)
Total : 44.74%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.71% ▲ (+0.14)
0-0 @ 8.31% ▲ (+0.09)
2-2 @ 5.1% ▲ (+0.10)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 27.17%
Burton Albion
0-1 @ 8.67% ▼ (-0.06)
1-2 @ 6.78% ▼ (-0.25)
0-2 @ 4.48% ▲ (+0.06)
1-3 @ 2.33% ▲ (+0.03)
2-3 @ 1.78%
0-3 @ 1.66% ▲ (+0.06)
Other @ 2.38% ▼ (-0.04)
Total : 28.08%

Head to Head

League One Gameweek 43
Exeter
Apr 18, 2025 1.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT St James Park
Burton Albion
  • Kevin McDonald 27' yellowcard
  • Ed Turns 55' yellowcard
  • Angus MacDonald 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ryan Sweeney 33'
  • yellowcard Kyran Lofthouse 64'
  • yellowcard Kegs Chauke 86'
League One Gameweek 21
Burton Albion
Dec 21, 2024 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 2 2
FT Pirelli Stadium
Exeter
  • Billy Bodin 8' goal
  • Billy Bodin 8' goal
  • Kegs Chauke 21' yellowcard
  • Kegs Chauke 21' yellowcard
  • Jason Sraha 59' yellowcard
  • Ciaran Gilligan 69' yellowcard
  • Terence Vancooten 78' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ryan Woods 13'
  • yellowcard Ryan Woods 13'
  • yellowcard Kevin McDonald 43'
  • yellowcard Kevin McDonald 43'
  • goal Josh Magennis 45'+2'
  • goal Josh Magennis 45'+2'
  • goal Millenic Alli 71'
  • yellowcard Millenic Alli 81'
  • yellowcard Jake Richards 85'
League One Gameweek 39
Exeter
Mar 16, 2024 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT St James Park
Burton Albion
  • Pierce Sweeney 30' yellowcard
  • Reece Cole 41' goal
  • Jack Aitchison 43' yellowcard
  • Zak Jules 45'+6' redcard
  • Tom Carroll 65' yellowcard
  • Reece Cole 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jake Caprice 2'
  • yellowcard Rekeem Harper 55'
  • yellowcard Mustapha Carayol 83'
League One Gameweek 6
Burton Albion
Sep 2, 2023 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Pirelli Stadium
Exeter
  • Joe Powell 26' yellowcard
  • Jasper Moon 59' yellowcard
  • Steve Seddon 81' yellowcard
  • Steve Seddon 90'+4' redcard
  • yellowcard Reece Cole 45'+3'
  • goal Ryan Trevitt 75'
League One Gameweek 31
Burton Albion
Feb 11, 2023 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Pirelli Stadium
Exeter
  • Sam Winnall 84' goal
League One Gameweek 10
Exeter
Sep 17, 2022 3.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Burton Albion
  • goal Deji Oshilaja 63'
  • goal Davis Keillor-Dunn 69'

Form Data

Exeter 1 - 5 Bolton
Peterborough 3 - 3 Exeter
Exeter 1 - 1 Wycombe
Exeter 0 - 0 Northampton
Mansfield 0 - 0 Exeter
Exeter 0 - 4 Rotherham
Wycombe 3 - 0 Burton Albion
Burton Albion 3 - 0 Stockport
Luton 1 - 1 Burton Albion
Burton Albion 1 - 0 Rotherham
Burton Albion 0 - 1 West Ham
Port Vale 2 - 2 Burton Albion