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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 69.99%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 11.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.64%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.77%), while for a Forest Green Rovers win it was 0-1 (4.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.
Result | ||
Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Forest Green Rovers |
69.99% ( 0.04) | 18.43% ( -0.03) | 11.58% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 46.89% ( 0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.04% ( 0.09) | 43.97% ( -0.09) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.65% ( 0.09) | 66.35% ( -0.09) |
Bolton Wanderers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.63% ( 0.04) | 11.37% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.92% ( 0.08) | 36.09% ( -0.08) |
Forest Green Rovers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
52.91% ( 0.05) | 47.1% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.44% ( 0.04) | 82.56% ( -0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Forest Green Rovers |
2-0 @ 12.65% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 11.64% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.53% 3-0 @ 9.17% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.91% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 4.99% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.76% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.6% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 2.17% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.63% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.41% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.52% Total : 69.98% | 1-1 @ 8.77% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.35% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.59% ( 0) Other @ 0.72% Total : 18.43% | 0-1 @ 4.03% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.3% ( -0) 0-2 @ 1.52% ( -0) 2-3 @ 0.9% ( 0) Other @ 1.83% Total : 11.58% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
2 | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
21 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
> League One Full Table |