FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round

Jan 17, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

The New Lawn

Forest Green
1 - 2
Birmingham

Stevenson (8')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Jutkiewicz (50'), Long (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's FA Cup clash between Forest Green Rovers and Birmingham City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Forest Green Rovers

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Exeter 1-1 Forest Green
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Birmingham City

All competitions

Last Game: Bristol City 4-2 Birmingham
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Forest Green Rovers win with a probability of 45.62%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 28.39% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Forest Green Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 0-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.

Result
Forest Green Rovers	Draw	Birmingham City
45.62% ( 0.08)	25.99% ( 0.05)	28.39% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 51.53% (

-0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.59% (

-0.26)

52.41% (

0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.91% (

-0.22)

74.09% (

0.22)

Forest Green Rovers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.07% (

-0.08)

22.93% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.3% (

-0.11)

56.7% (

0.11)

Birmingham City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.86% (

-0.23)

33.14% (

0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.26% (

-0.25)

69.74% (

0.25)

Score Analysis

Forest Green Rovers 45.62%

Birmingham City 28.39%

Draw 25.99%

Forest Green Rovers	Draw	Birmingham City
1-0 @ 11.19% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 9.1% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.24% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 4.47% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.05% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.47% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.65% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.49% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.06% Total : 45.62%	1-1 @ 12.36% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.03% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.99%	0-1 @ 8.39% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.83% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.47% Total : 28.39%