Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 43.33%. A win for Reading had a probability of 28.73% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Reading win was 0-1 (10.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.