Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 41.58%. A draw had a probability of 29.5% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.42%) and 1-2 (7.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.3%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 1-0 (11.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Real Valladolid | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 28.9% | 29.51% | 41.58% |
| Both teams to score 42.07% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.45% | 64.55% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.42% | 83.57% |
| Real Valladolid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.67% | 39.32% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.97% | 76.03% |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.33% | 30.66% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.08% | 66.91% |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Valladolid | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 1-0 @ 11.25% 2-1 @ 6.21% 2-0 @ 5.25% 3-1 @ 1.93% 3-0 @ 1.63% 3-2 @ 1.14% Other @ 1.47% Total : 28.89% | 1-1 @ 13.3% 0-0 @ 12.05% 2-2 @ 3.67% Other @ 0.48% Total : 29.5% | 0-1 @ 14.25% 0-2 @ 8.42% 1-2 @ 7.86% 0-3 @ 3.32% 1-3 @ 3.1% 2-3 @ 1.45% 0-4 @ 0.98% 1-4 @ 0.92% Other @ 1.28% Total : 41.58% |