Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 59.23%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 18.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.82%) and 1-2 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 1-0 (5.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.