Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 39.24%. A win for Sevilla had a probability of 34.01% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.4%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Sevilla win was 0-1 (9.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.