Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 46.64%. A win for Sevilla had a probability of 29.71% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.21%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Sevilla win was 1-2 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Girona would win this match.