Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Osasuna win with a probability of 39.06%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 33.26% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Osasuna win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.18%) and 2-0 (7.22%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (10.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Osasuna in this match.