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La Liga | Gameweek 15
Dec 2, 2023 at 3.15pm UK
San Mames Barria
Rayo Vallecano logo
Athletic Bilbao
4 - 0
Rayo Vallecano
Guruzeta (23'), Espino (47' og.), Williams (64'), Williams (68')
Vivian (6')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Espino (32'), Falcao (87')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Athletic Bilbao and Rayo Vallecano, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Rayo Vallecano

Rayo have proven to be difficult to beat this season, and Athletic will be under no illusions of the size of the task facing them this weekend. We are expecting a very close match on Saturday but believe that Athletic's quality in the forward positions will allow them to secure a vital three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 55.55%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 20.21%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.64%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
Athletic BilbaoDrawRayo Vallecano
55.55% (-0.45 -0.45) 24.24% (0.262 0.26) 20.21% (0.185 0.18)
Both teams to score 48.3% (-0.5 -0.5)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.56% (-0.806 -0.81)52.44% (0.803 0.8)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.88% (-0.697 -0.7)74.12% (0.694 0.69)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.24% (-0.47499999999999 -0.47)18.76% (0.472 0.47)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.84% (-0.797 -0.8)50.16% (0.794 0.79)
Rayo Vallecano Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.46% (-0.26799999999999 -0.27)40.54% (0.264 0.26)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.86% (-0.241 -0.24)77.14% (0.23699999999999 0.24)
Score Analysis
    Athletic Bilbao 55.53%
    Rayo Vallecano 20.21%
    Draw 24.24%
Athletic BilbaoDrawRayo Vallecano
1-0 @ 12.72% (0.21 0.21)
2-0 @ 10.64% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.62% (-0.052 -0.05)
3-0 @ 5.94% (-0.079 -0.08)
3-1 @ 5.36% (-0.111 -0.11)
4-0 @ 2.49% (-0.071 -0.07)
3-2 @ 2.42% (-0.068 -0.07)
4-1 @ 2.24% (-0.082 -0.08)
4-2 @ 1.01% (-0.044 -0.04)
Other @ 3.09%
Total : 55.53%
1-1 @ 11.49% (0.11 0.11)
0-0 @ 7.61% (0.239 0.24)
2-2 @ 4.34% (-0.056 -0.06)
Other @ 0.8%
Total : 24.24%
0-1 @ 6.87% (0.168 0.17)
1-2 @ 5.19% (0.013 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.1% (0.054 0.05)
1-3 @ 1.56% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.31% (-0.026 -0.03)
0-3 @ 0.93% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 1.25%
Total : 20.21%

How you voted: Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano

Athletic Bilbao
67.9%
Draw
25.0%
Rayo Vallecano
7.1%
28
Head to Head
Mar 5, 2023 5.30pm
Sep 17, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 6
Athletic Bilbao
3-2
Rayo Vallecano
Williams (14'), Sancet (28'), Williams (33')
Trejo (5'), Falcao (80')
Jan 23, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 22
Rayo Vallecano
0-1
Athletic Bilbao

Lopez (89')
Serrano (30')
Williams (17'), Zarraga (60'), Garcia (69'), Simon (82'), Lekue (86'), Williams (88')
Sep 21, 2021 9pm
Gameweek 6
Athletic Bilbao
1-2
Rayo Vallecano
Ciss (33' og.)
Nunez (16'), Muniain (56'), Martinez (90+5')
Garcia (5'), Falcao (90+6')
Catena (7'), Guardiola (42'), Maras (83')
Apr 14, 2019 1pm
Gameweek 32
Athletic Bilbao
3-2
Rayo Vallecano
Williams (2', 50'), Garcia (72')
Williams (90')
Moreno (45'), De Tomas (85')
Advincula (49'), Ba (68')
Advincula (52')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Real Madrid26205154163865
2GironaGirona26185357322559
3Barcelona26176356342257
4Atletico MadridAtletico26164652282452
5Athletic Bilbao26147546262049
6Real BetisBetis26101243126542
7Real Sociedad26101063526940
8Valencia2510692929036
9Las PalmasLas Palmas26106102626036
10Getafe2681083338-534
11Osasuna2696113037-733
12AlavesAlaves2678112532-729
13Villarreal2678113848-1029
14Rayo Vallecano26510112236-1425
15Sevilla2659123038-824
16Mallorca26412102334-1124
17Celta Vigo2649132939-1021
18CadizCadiz26212121737-2018
19Granada2528152749-2214
20Almeria2609172554-299

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