La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 15

Dec 2, 2023 at 3.15pm UK

San Mames Barria

Athletic Bilbao
4 - 0
Rayo Vallecano

Guruzeta (23'), Espino (47' og.), Williams (64'), Williams (68')
Vivian (6')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Espino (32'), Falcao (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Athletic Bilbao and Rayo Vallecano, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Girona 1-1 Athletic Bilbao
Monday, November 27 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Rayo Vallecano

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Barcelona
Saturday, November 25 at 1pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 55.55%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 20.21%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.64%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
55.55% ( -0.45)	24.24% ( 0.26)	20.21% ( 0.18)

Both teams to score 48.3% (

-0.5)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.56% (

-0.81)

52.44% (

0.8)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.88% (

-0.7)

74.12% (

0.69)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.24% (

-0.47)

18.76% (

0.47)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.84% (

-0.8)

50.16% (

0.79)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.46% (

-0.27)

40.54% (

0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.86% (

-0.24)

77.14% (

0.24)

Score Analysis

Athletic Bilbao 55.53%

Rayo Vallecano 20.21%

Draw 24.24%

Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
1-0 @ 12.72% ( 0.21) 2-0 @ 10.64% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 5.94% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 5.36% ( -0.11) 4-0 @ 2.49% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 2.24% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.09% Total : 55.53%	1-1 @ 11.49% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 7.61% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 4.34% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.8% Total : 24.24%	0-1 @ 6.87% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.1% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.25% Total : 20.21%