Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 51.9%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 22.13%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.35%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.17%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (8.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.