Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 37.26%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 34.63% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.87%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Valencia win was 0-1 (11.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11% likelihood.