Champions League

Champions League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg

Feb 13, 2024 at 8pm UK

Red Bull Arena

RB Leipzig
0 - 1
Real Madrid

(Real Madrid win 2-1 on aggregate)

Rose (45'), Simakan (53'), Poulsen (77'), Sesko (85')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Diaz (48')
Carvajal (66'), Junior (85')

Reaction

Real Madrid's Brahim Diaz after sustaining an injury on February 13, 2024

Carlo Ancelotti plays down Brahim Diaz injury fears

Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti plays down claims that Brahim Diaz suffered a potentially long-term injury against RB Leipzig.

Feb 14, 17:26

Real Madrid's Brahim Diaz allays injury fears after RB Leipzig victory

Real Madrid midfielder Brahim Diaz confirms that the injury he suffered in their 1-0 win away to RB Leipzig is not as serious as first feared.

Feb 14, 00:03

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

RB Leipzig

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Augsburg 2-2 RB Leipzig
Saturday, February 10 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Real Madrid

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Real Madrid 4-0 Girona
Saturday, February 10 at 5.30pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 40.22%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 36.32% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.77%) and 0-2 (5.55%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 2-1 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
RB Leipzig	Draw	Real Madrid
36.32% ( 0.03)	23.45% ( -0)	40.22% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 63.45% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.75% (

0.01)

38.25% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.47% (

0.02)

60.52% (

-0.02)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.73% (

0.02)

21.26% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.82% (

0.04)

54.18% (

-0.04)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.59% (

-0.01)

19.41% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.77% (

-0.01)

51.23% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

RB Leipzig 36.32%

Real Madrid 40.22%

Draw 23.45%

RB Leipzig	Draw	Real Madrid
2-1 @ 8.11% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.39% 2-0 @ 4.95% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.19% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.43% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.55% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.62% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.33% ( 0) 4-0 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 2.78% Total : 36.32%	1-1 @ 10.47% 2-2 @ 6.65% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.13% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.88% ( 0) Other @ 0.33% Total : 23.45%	1-2 @ 8.59% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.77% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.69% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.63% ( 0) 0-3 @ 3.03% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.92% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.49% 0-4 @ 1.24% ( -0) Other @ 3.31% Total : 40.22%