Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 47.09%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Leganes had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.4%) and 1-2 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.75%), while for a Leganes win it was 1-0 (9.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Rayo Vallecano in this match.