Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 39.54%. A win for Leganes had a probability of 32.14% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.07%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Leganes win was 1-0 (10.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.