Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 47.52%. A draw had a probability of 28.44% and a win for Neftekhimik had a probability of 24.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.28%) and 2-0 (8.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.97%) , while for a Neftekhimik win it was 0-1 (8.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.