Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 44.75%. A win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 28.9% and a draw had a probability of 26.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Nizhny Novgorod win was 0-1 (7.91%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.