Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dynamo Moscow win with a probability of 58.66%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Orenburg had a probability of 19.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dynamo Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.01%) and 2-0 (9.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.05%) , while for a Orenburg win it was 0-1 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.