Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 72.32%. A draw had a probability of 18.29% and a win for Orenburg had a probability of 9.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.47%) and 3-0 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.87%) , while for a Orenburg win it was 0-1 (3.77%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.