Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 39.5%. A win for Dynamo Moscow had a probability of 34.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.7%) and 0-2 (6.2%). The likeliest Dynamo Moscow win was 1-0 (8.21%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.