Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 40.94%. A win for Sunderland had a probability of 30.9% and a draw had a probability of 28.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Sunderland win was 0-1 (10.22%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood.