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Europa League

Ajax
Europa League | Group Stage
Dec 14, 2023 at 8pm UK
Johan Cruijff Arena
AEK Athens

Ajax
3 - 1
AEK Athens

Akpom (5', 56'), Taylor (20')
Brobbey (8'), Sosa (10'), Hato (54'), Sutalo (76')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Garcia (11')
Amrabat (15'), Vida (35'), Moukoudi (45+2'), Almeyda (58')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Ajax and AEK Athens, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Ajax 2-1 Sparta
Saturday, December 9 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie

AEK Athens

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: AEK Athens 1-0 Aris
Monday, December 4 at 7pm in Greek Superleague

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 49.66%. A win for AEK Athens had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.33%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest AEK Athens win was 1-2 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
AjaxDrawAEK Athens
49.66% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)21.77% (0.0029999999999966 0)28.58% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Both teams to score 66.25% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.85% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)33.14% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.11% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)54.89% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.18% (-0.00099999999999056 -0)13.82% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.83% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)41.17% (0.0080000000000027 0.01)
AEK Athens Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.87% (-0.0039999999999907 -0)23.13% (0.004999999999999 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.01% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)56.99% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Ajax 49.66%
    AEK Athens 28.58%
    Draw 21.77%
AjaxDrawAEK Athens
2-1 @ 9.16%
1-0 @ 6.33% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-0 @ 6.26% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-1 @ 6.05% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-2 @ 4.43% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-0 @ 4.13%
4-1 @ 2.99%
4-2 @ 2.19% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 2.04%
5-1 @ 1.18% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-3 @ 1.07%
Other @ 3.83%
Total : 49.66%
1-1 @ 9.26% (0.0019999999999989 0)
2-2 @ 6.71%
0-0 @ 3.2% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-3 @ 2.16% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.44%
Total : 21.77%
1-2 @ 6.78% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-1 @ 4.68% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 3.43%
1-3 @ 3.31%
2-3 @ 3.27% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 1.67%
1-4 @ 1.21%
2-4 @ 1.2%
Other @ 3.03%
Total : 28.58%

How you voted: Ajax vs AEK Athens

Ajax
80.0%
Draw
14.1%
AEK Athens
5.9%
85
Head to Head
Oct 5, 2023 5.45pm
Group Stage
AEK Athens
1-1
Ajax
Vida (74')
Vida (40'), Pineda (51'), Araujo (89'), Amrabat (90')
Bergwijn (30' pen.)
Brobbey (56'), Sutalo (61')
> Preview
Nov 27, 2018 5.55pm
Group Stage
AEK Athens
0-2
Ajax

Oikonomou (29'), Chygrynskiy (51'), Livaja (53'), Giakoumakis (90')
Livaja (67')
Tadic (68' pen., 72')
Schone (19'), Mazraoui (60')
Sep 19, 2018 5.55pm
Group Stage
Ajax
3-0
AEK Athens
Tagliafico (46', 90'), Van de Beek (77')
de Jong (74'), Ziyech (75'), Tagliafico (88')

Alef (72'), Mantalos (74')