Eredivisie | Gameweek 15

Dec 9, 2023 at 5.45pm UK

Johan Cruijff Arena

Ajax
2 - 1
Sparta

Brobbey (8'), Bergwijn (42' pen.)

FT(HT: 2-0)

Neghli (55')
de Guzman (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Eredivisie clash between Ajax and Sparta Rotterdam, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: RKC Waalwijk 2-3 Ajax
Wednesday, December 6 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions

Last Game: Heracles 0-1 Sparta
Saturday, December 2 at 8pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 53.84%. A win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 24.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.08%) and 1-0 (6.9%). The likeliest Sparta Rotterdam win was 1-2 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Ajax in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Ajax.

Result
Ajax	Draw	Sparta Rotterdam
53.84% ( -0.25)	21.3% ( 0.12)	24.85% ( 0.13)

Both teams to score 64.34% (

-0.3)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.86% (

-0.45)

34.14% (

0.46)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.97% (

-0.52)

56.03% (

0.52)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.13% (

-0.22)

12.87% (

0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.74% (

-0.47)

39.26% (

0.47)

Sparta Rotterdam Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.84% (

-0.15)

26.16% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.76% (

-0.21)

61.24% (

0.21)

Score Analysis

Ajax 53.84%

Sparta Rotterdam 24.85%

Draw 21.3%

Ajax	Draw	Sparta Rotterdam
2-1 @ 9.49% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.08% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 6.9% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 6.49% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 4.84% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 4.35% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 3.32% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 2.48% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.02) 4-3 @ 1% ( -0.02) 5-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.39% Total : 53.84%	1-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 6.36% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.37% ( 0.08) 3-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.37% Total : 21.3%	1-2 @ 6.21% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 4.51% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 3.03% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.84% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.77% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 2.25% Total : 24.85%