Preview: Estonia vs Iceland - prediction, team news, lineups

In an encounter that could prove decisive in the race for automatic promotion from UEFA Nations League Group C4, Estonia welcome Iceland to Lillekula Stadium on Tuesday for a round four encounter.

The visitors lead the section with seven points, two ahead of the hosts, who are themselves two points clear of third-placed Luxembourg, setting up an intriguing battle at the top of the group.

Match preview

Estonia have never featured above the third tier of the Nations League, and their quest to secure a first promotion to League B has started positively despite kicking off the campaign with consecutive away games.

Following draws on the road in their opening two outings against Iceland and Bulgaria, Jurgen Henn's team made the most of their first home fixture of the tournament on Saturday when they recorded a 1-0 victory over Luxembourg.

An early Rasmus Peetson strike was enough to secure maximum points in Tallinn, with that result extending Estonia's unbeaten run to five matches across all competitions (W3, D2), during which they have kept four clean sheets.

That said, Tuesday’s test comes against visitors ranked 53 places above the 127th-ranked hosts in the FIFA World Rankings, though there is plenty of confidence to draw from Estonia's recent home form, as they have not lost any of their last four matches on their own soil, with each of the last three ending in victory and a clean sheet.

Nothing less than an immediate promotion push could have been expected from Iceland, who look to make amends for their relegation from the second tier in 2024-25, especially considering that they competed in League A during the first two editions of the Nations League.

Strakarnir Okkar have gone about their own resurgence in impressive fashion, following up their opening-day draw against Estonia with back-to-back 3-0 victories at Luxembourg and over Bulgaria, the latter inspired by an Orri Oskarsson brace and a late Mikael Egill Ellertsson strike.

Arnar Gunnlaugsson will be particularly pleased with his side's current form, considering they had gone seven matches without a victory (D3, L4) before their recent back-to-back wins, while their four victories in their last 15 outings have all come in games where they kept clean sheets.

While Iceland will know that another strong defensive display could prove crucial in their quest for a positive result, they also have a poor away record to contend with, having lost seven of their 11 UEFA Nations League group-stage matches on the road (W2, D2).

Estonia Nations League form:

Estonia form (all competitions):

Iceland Nations League form:

Iceland form (all competitions):

Team News

Estonia are expected to be without captain Karol Mets, who is suspended due to accumulated bookings, meaning manager Henn will have to restructure his backline, with Erko Jonne Tougjas among the candidates to step into the starting lineup.

Karl Hein has now left the Estonia camp with a muscular problem after missing Saturday's game, with Matvei Igonen expected to continue in goal after keeping a clean sheet last time out.

Robi Saarma remained an unused substitute against Luxembourg after picking up an injury in the previous outing, so Michael Schjonning-Larsen could retain his place at left wing-back in Henn's five-man defence.

Karel Mustmaa is also pushing for a recall in the number-nine role after coming on as a substitute against Luxembourg, while Peetson is likely to retain his place at right wing-back after his impressive display last time out.

As for Iceland, Albert Gudmundsson and Stefan Teitur Thordarson remain sidelined with injuries sustained on matchdays one and two, respectively, while Mikael Egill Ellertsson is also expected to miss this one due to suspension from accumulated bookings.

Veteran midfielder Gylfi Sigurdsson could return to the starting lineup after making a second-half substitute appearance last time out, while Oskarsson, who has been directly involved in five of Iceland's seven goals in this Nations League campaign (G3, A2), should lead the line once again.

Estonia possible starting lineup:

Igonen; Peetson, Torgjas, Paskotsi, Kuusk, Schjonning-Larsen; Poom; Soomets, Kristal, Kait; Mustmaa

Iceland possible starting lineup:

Valdimarsson; Anderson, Gunnarsson, Magnusson, Tomasson; G Sigurdsson, Johannesson, Haraldsson; A Gudjohnsen, Oskarsson, Porsteinsson

We say: Estonia 1-1 Iceland

Iceland are unbeaten in each of their last five meetings with Estonia, although the most recent four have ended in draws, and with both sides still unbeaten in this campaign, another stalemate looks the most likely outcome.

The two teams have shown enough defensive solidity to suggest that neither will want to take too many risks, while their respective positions near the top of the group could see both settle for a point rather than leave themselves exposed.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.