Nations League Gameweek 4
Oct 6, 2026 7.45pm
Sportland Arena

Estonia vs Iceland - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Estonia

All competitions

Iceland

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Iceland win with a probability of 46.87%. A win for Estonia has a probability of 27.09% and a draw has a probability of 26.05%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iceland win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (8.18%). The likeliest Estonia win is 1-0 (8.35%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.17%).

Result

Estonia 27.09% ▼ (-0.18)
Draw 26.05% ▼ (-0.04)
Iceland 46.87% ▲ (+0.23)

Both Teams to Score: 

48.65%

Goals

Over 1.5 72.2% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 1.5 27.8% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 2.5 47.69% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 2.5 52.31% ▼ (-0.09)
Over 3.5 26.48% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 73.48% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 4.5 15.16% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 84.84% ▼ (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Estonia 23.38% ▲ (+0.04)
Draw 45.44% ▲ (+0.01)
Iceland 31.19% ▼ (-0.03)

Team To Score First

Estonia 39.07% ▼ (-0.21)
No Goal 7.95% ▼ (-0.04)
Iceland 52.98% ▲ (+0.23)

Corners

Over 8 33.88% ▲ (+0.02)
Equal 8 11.6%
Under 8 54.52% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 9 24.15%
Equal 9 9.73%
Under 9 66.12% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 10.5 16.6% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 10.5 83.4% ▼ (-0.01)

Estonia Goals

Over 1.5 27.35% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 1.5 72.65% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 2.5 9.52% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 2.5 90.48% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 3.5 2.94% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 97.06% ▲ (+0.02)

Iceland Goals

Over 0.5 75.21% ▲ (+0.18)
Under 0.5 24.79% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 1.5 42.91% ▲ (+0.18)
Under 1.5 57.09% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 2.5 19.66% ▲ (+0.13)
Under 2.5 80.34% ▼ (-0.12)
Over 3.5 7.11% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 3.5 92.89% ▼ (-0.05)

Score analysis

Estonia 27.08%
Draw 26.05%
Iceland 46.86%
Estonia
1-0 @ 8.35% ▼ (-0.09)
2-1 @ 6.37% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 4.17% ▼ (-0.05)
3-1 @ 2.27% ▼ (-0.03)
3-0 @ 1.63% ▼ (-0.02)
3-2 @ 1.61% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 2.68% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 27.08%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.17%
0-0 @ 7.95% ▼ (-0.04)
2-2 @ 4.6%
3-3 @ 1.07%
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 26.05%
Iceland
0-1 @ 11.49% ▲ (+0.03)
1-2 @ 8.86% ▲ (+0.04)
0-2 @ 8.18% ▲ (+0.03)
1-3 @ 4.45% ▲ (+0.03)
0-3 @ 4.34% ▲ (+0.05)
2-3 @ 2.69% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 6.85% ▲ (+0.05)
Total : 46.86%

Head to Head

Nations League Gameweek 1
Sep 26, 2026 5.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Laugardalsvöllur
  • Andri Gudjohnsen 45' goal
  • Stefán Teitur Thórdarson  84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Karol Mets 54'
  • goal Maksim Paskotsi 64'
  • yellowcard Rasmus Peetson  81'
International Friendlies
Jan 8, 2023 5.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT Estádio da Nora
  • Andri Gudjohnsen 90'+1' goal
  • goal Sergei Zenjov 45'
International Friendlies
Jan 15, 2019 4.45pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • yellowcard Aron Elis Thrandarson 21'