Nations League Gameweek 3
Oct 3, 2026 5.00pm
Laugardalsvöllur

Iceland vs Bulgaria - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Iceland

All competitions

Bulgaria

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Iceland win with a probability of 46.44%. A win for Bulgaria has a probability of 28.45% and a draw has a probability of 25.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iceland win is 1-0 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Bulgaria win is 1-2 (7%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.29%).

Result

Iceland 46.44%
Draw 25.11%
Bulgaria 28.45%

Both Teams to Score: 

54.3%

Goals

Over 1.5 77.91%
Under 1.5 22.09%
Over 2.5 55.78%
Under 2.5 44.22%
Over 3.5 34.26%
Under 3.5 65.74%
Over 4.5 20.99%
Under 4.5 79.01%

First Half Winner

Iceland 37.23%
Draw 36.9%
Bulgaria 25.87%

Team To Score First

Iceland 52.51%
No Goal 6.32%
Bulgaria 41.17%

Corners

Over 8 54.15%
Equal 8 12.5%
Under 8 33.34%
Over 9 41.76%
Equal 9 12.4%
Under 9 45.85%
Over 10.5 30.57%
Under 10.5 69.43%

Iceland Goals

Over 1.5 47.21%
Under 1.5 52.79%
Over 2.5 23.91%
Under 2.5 76.09%
Over 3.5 10.28%
Under 3.5 89.72%

Bulgaria Goals

Over 0.5 63.71%
Under 0.5 36.29%
Over 1.5 31.99%
Under 1.5 68.01%
Over 2.5 12.88%
Under 2.5 87.12%
Over 3.5 4.66%
Under 3.5 95.34%

Score analysis

Iceland 46.43%
Draw 25.1%
Bulgaria 28.46%
Iceland
1-0 @ 8.92%
2-1 @ 8.66%
2-0 @ 7.02%
3-1 @ 4.93%
3-0 @ 4.3%
3-2 @ 2.88%
Other @ 9.72%
Total : 46.43%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.29%
0-0 @ 6.32%
2-2 @ 5.41%
3-3 @ 1.52%
Other @ 0.56%
Total : 25.1%
Bulgaria
1-2 @ 7%
0-1 @ 6.84%
0-2 @ 3.82%
1-3 @ 2.93%
2-3 @ 2.21%
0-3 @ 1.56%
Other @ 4.1%
Total : 28.46%