Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 60.96%. A draw had a probability of 23.45% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 15.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.23%) and 2-1 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.77%) , while for a Iceland win it was 0-1 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.